Nifty Futures continues to survive minor negative waves. The immediate short-term trend is positive with supports coming in 11713-11720 range. Global Markets sentiment ended moderately positive except the European indices on last Friday. Key economic indicator India Q1 GDP growth soars to a 9-quarter high of 8.2% Vs 7.7 Quarter-on-Quarter basis. This is the highest growth in two years and strongest since the first quarter of 2016.
On the Negative News Side, EM currency crisis is back around the corner and US President Trump’s proposed tariffs on $200 billion worth of imported goods from China, which could hit in early September.
However, call writers are active for the series at 11800 levels and indicator sentiment maintains negative for the 3rd consecutive session that could keep nifty in a rangebound balanced mode between 11720 – 11820 zones in futures. Only if the price level breaching below 11720 needs to be monitored for any downside bias.
At the money IV of Calls at 9.42 and At-the-money IV of Puts at 12.60 that shows markets are compressed and volatility is completely dead at this juncture. Nifty Futures is currently trading at a hefty premium of 55 points which indicates even a gap-up scenario on Monday trading session in the Nifty spot will have little effect on Nifty Futures as possibilities of this hefty premium could be adjusted on Monday morning if there is any possible gap up scenario.
Nifty Spot – 4 hourly charts
Higher timeframe quick-flip analysis indicates Nifty is currently in a neutral stance any positive momentum could further build only if Nifty spot is able to hold above 11710. Maintaining Grey bars in quick-flip trading system is a sign of a possible trend reversal. So one have to maintain cautious stance if Nifty Futures fails to show momentum above 11710 levels.