Wednesday’s profile structure is interesting as it turns out to be a classical trend day. On a Down Trend day market one timeframe lower without breaking the previous bar high. i.e making lower high on a 30min charts. Once the one timeframing broke on Wednesday trading in Nifty Futures.
Are you lost in your world of thoughts about the market? Your open positions, economic concerns are flashing through your mind very frequently. You might be thinking whether the market bottomed out, where the next support/resistance is, which stock one can pick up from these oversold markets, which stock can bring quick returns, where the best trading opportunity is, where the market could go next and arrays of thoughts might be running through your mind right now.
USDINR has an interesting monthly pattern. For 10 months in a row, it is one timeframing without breaking previous month lows that shows the confidence of larger timeframe players. It is a straight upward one-sided rally. All-time high comes around 74.528. Current swing move from 63.10 to 74.528 which is roughly 18% of swing move. The entire move comes from the year 2018 along.
In theory, island gap reversals are nothing but a gap closed by another gap. No volume occurs in this zone. This zone is a high probability short term zone. At times it gives trading opportunities and at times it even provides investing odds as well where the destination target is always the filling of the gap.
Listen, IT is the hottest sector when USDINR is hitting the all-time high. pharmaceutical and information technology are the sectors which earn a big part of their revenues in dollars. Every dollar earned through exports means more money added to the bottom line. Year to Date Nifty IT Sector gained 36.4% and a whopping 700% returns since Feb 2009. But I’m here to tell that “you should always leave a party early when the sector is on steroids”.
A lot of weird things happened during Wednesday trading session. Nifty Smallcap closed positive while Nifty Spot lost more than 150 pts. India VIX spiked above 18.12 levels.
Prevailing Italian crisis, USDINR Hitting all-time high, Weak Asian Markets & Brent crude near 85 USD per barrel. Nifty started underperforming Bank Nifty Futures largely due to Nifty Auto and Nifty IT sector as it is down 2.94 and 1.87 respectively. Two more trading days left for the RBI policy to kick start. Despite all these drama Nifty Futures ended as an Inside bar.
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October month started with high volatile movement in Nifty Futures where it swings between 10857 – 11090 during Monday trading session. But don’t be surprised with such sort of wild volatility swings. On the higher timeframe (Daily Charts) Nifty is still in a sideways mode as last 7 days in a row Nifty Spot tested 11000 levels regardless of where nifty went, which makes the positional trading difficult to hold on to your conclusions. Welcome to the psychological reference game.
Nifty futures on the daily timeframe shows extreme indications as it tested the 3 Standard deviation band on Thursday, September expiry day. Sideways to short-term pullbacks are expected if Nifty Futures is able to hold quick flip short-term support zone 10959 level.
Nifty Futures quick flip trading system is currently trading with immediate base supports coming around 11027-11043 levels. Price holding 11027 is very critical for the current uptrend to continue. On the Daily timeframe indicator sentiment still continues to be negative for the 6th consecutive trading session. Hence any price move down below 11027 could bring immediate weakness towards 11907 levels positionally.
Nifty Futures lost 5.4% for this month. Interestingly so far it is outperforming Bank Nifty Futures which lost 10% for Sep 2018 alone. Expiry is very near and current Nifty Futures rollover is at 23.73%. Nifty Futures premium is still at 30 points. Daily sentiment remains negative for the 5th day despite having a 100 pointer day in Nifty Futures. On the daily timeframe, Nifty Futures is still making lower lows for the third consecutive day. Momentum buyers controlled the day. Short term support comes around today’s spike base 11060. Volatility is at the extreme though India VIX down 4.27%
Recent days Bank Nifty Futures are under extreme pressure as it had so far lost 11.5% for this month alone breaking the 4 month low or roughly more than 3300 plus points of correction in Sep 2018 alone. Quick flip is in sell mode since 17th Sep 2018. The crash in Bank Nifty is mostly driven due to overvalued Private Banks, USDINR currency crisis and other local factors.