Nifty Futures is still not out of compression yet and continuing with the 10600 – 10900 range for July series. More frustration is likely among the trend followers and short-term direction index futures traders. Volatility is flip-flopping. It is always good to recognize this sort of tough game for any kind of directional players that will eventually reduce overtrading.
Still, Nifty Futures is struggling to find its direction for this month. So far in this series, Nifty went down 10552 levels and no supportive active from the sellers and the price manage to move to the other side of the consolidation band 10800 levels. No supportive action from the buyers at 10800 levels price again rotated towards the center of the consolidation band 10560 – 10800.
Nifty Futures during May series ended marginally negative despite news factors like Karnataka hung assembly, EM Currency crisis, Italy Crisis. Year to date Nifty is up by 1.7%. The first half of the June Expiry series trading could be in the range of 10600-10800 range. Volatility Index (India VIX) also trading below sub 14 levels indicating a muted trend in the near future.
Nifty Futures on Friday’s trading session again bounced back above important and critical reference 10564 (Double distribution reference). Thursday’s and Friday’s trading session involve more of a old money covering their shorts rather than a fresh buying. That brings the question is the inventory adjustment is over as short term inventory when short to too short on Wednesday’s trading.
Nifty Futures started its liquidation phase since the start of Karnataka election results. Clients are liquidating their major long positions and parallelly PRO+DII+CLI also exiting their shorts positions. Most of those long liquidations so far resulted in a net negative trend.
Nifty Futures on Wednesday trading session exactly respected at the Tuesdays prominent POC and also selling continued at days open. Day ended with a spike with a poor structure combination indicating a potential pullback towards 10540 levels as the short term trading inventory goes short to too short. Current swing low is not secured yet (will be revisited in a very shorter term).
“Too many Weaker References” – What does that actually mean? It means more of short term buyers behavior at every dip where they come and pile at very mechanical references. Those are the references which are often susceptible to retest and at times faster. when the weaker reference levels are exponential it indicates that short term inventory is getting long to too long and the revisiting odds of all those references significantly increased.
Nifty Futures formed value area lower on Wednesdays trading session however holding on to the major support level 10698 on closing basis. Both Indicator sentiment and Profile sentiment are holding to negative. More under-performance seen in Midcap and Smallcap stocks. Now staying below 10698 is critical for Nifty Futures towards the downside references 10480. Value buildinng lower is the further key to downtrend in a very short term.
Nifty Futures on Wednesdays session made a high of 2 point away from April month high. Trading session is dominated by intraday buyers followed by a potential daytimeframe stop hunting. Overall sellers controlled the session during the start of the session and second is dominated by long liquidation by intraday timeframes.
Nifty Futures on 30th Apr 2018 ended with a strong closing at the day high. Current swing rallied from 9960 – 10788 i.e almost 818 points in the favor of bulls without any major price retracement. Current trading sentiment is positive across all the timeframe. However the current swing momentum is slow and steady sort of a rolling momentum which pulls lots of inventory pile up from short term trading community and the inventory is dangerously long.
It is a momentum buyers market when comes to Nifty Futures trading. Shorter term momentum traders are driving this market in April Expiry series. Every micro dips are bought for this series a typical behavior of momentum players. And the last couple of days shorter term inventory is getting long to to long. No so good indication for the current uptrend.
Nifty Futures is consecutively making higher high and higher lows for last 4 trading sessions. This series so far shorter term buyers dominant is more than anyother timeframe. One of the day where shorter timeframe inventory went long to too long. Profile structure is showing a possible instant weakeness however support are building around 10280-10300 levels.