Nifty Futures closed with a negative note despite evading Turkish Lira and Chinese & slowdown fears. USDINR is currently trading around 70.30 hits a fresh all-time high on 16th Aug 2018. Nifty Futures trading sentiment and market profile sentiment holds negative with immediate short-term resistance around 11450.
Nifty Futures finds its resistance around 11505 levels and on Friday trading session both indicator and profile trading sentiment turned negative. Momentum sellers controlled the day which makes the trend positionally down towards the next stop zone 11386 and the previously unfilled gap reference 11180 and the G2 Low reference 11117 levels.
Nifty Futures end on Friday with a strong bullish note. Profile Sentiment turned positive however indicator sentiment maintaining negative which brings the odds of sideways to downward markets. Call writers are still active at 11400 and 11500 strike price which puts an immediate EOD resistance at 11400 in Nifty Spot.
Nifty Futures broke above previous all-time high 11185.6 on last Friday. So previous all-time high becomes immediate support now in a very short term. Trading sentiment holding positive for the last 5 trading session. Put writers are active at 11000PE and call writers are aggressive at 11400 hence in a very short-term trading range could be in the band of 11190-11420. Markets could play a ping-pong game here (sort of consolidation) before giving any major directional clues.
Nifty Futures inventory went long to too long on last Friday. At the Monday open, trading confidence is initially low. Trading confidence is low even after the initial – 2 day breakout with a partial gap fill. However during mid of the day,, one timeframing against the Initial Balance direction is where exactly high confidence sellers started taking control and pressed the price towards the Prominent POC of control 10940 levels.
I guess Nifty is in a make or break zone as the higher timeframe range is getting tighter & tigher. The United States and China slapped tit-for-tat duties on $34 billion worth of each other’s imports on Friday, with Beijing accusing Washington of triggering the “largest-scale trade war”. Despite the negative news factor, Asian markets (China, Hang Seng) recovered the early losses and closed positive.
High Volatile Choppiness is the name of the game being played in Nifty. Since 25th of May lack of serious buying and lack of serious selling is witnessed which is keeping the market in a range despite Chinese market crashing and emerging market currency crisis. Local currency USDINR too touched all time high and currently around 68.74
Nifty Futures is still not out of compression yet and continuing with the 10600 – 10900 range for July series. More frustration is likely among the trend followers and short-term direction index futures traders. Volatility is flip-flopping. It is always good to recognize this sort of tough game for any kind of directional players that will eventually reduce overtrading.
Still, Nifty Futures is struggling to find its direction for this month. So far in this series, Nifty went down 10552 levels and no supportive active from the sellers and the price manage to move to the other side of the consolidation band 10800 levels. No supportive action from the buyers at 10800 levels price again rotated towards the center of the consolidation band 10560 – 10800.
Nifty Futures during May series ended marginally negative despite news factors like Karnataka hung assembly, EM Currency crisis, Italy Crisis. Year to date Nifty is up by 1.7%. The first half of the June Expiry series trading could be in the range of 10600-10800 range. Volatility Index (India VIX) also trading below sub 14 levels indicating a muted trend in the near future.
Nifty Futures on Friday’s trading session again bounced back above important and critical reference 10564 (Double distribution reference). Thursday’s and Friday’s trading session involve more of a old money covering their shorts rather than a fresh buying. That brings the question is the inventory adjustment is over as short term inventory when short to too short on Wednesday’s trading.
Nifty Futures started its liquidation phase since the start of Karnataka election results. Clients are liquidating their major long positions and parallelly PRO+DII+CLI also exiting their shorts positions. Most of those long liquidations so far resulted in a net negative trend.