Wednesday’s profile structure is interesting as it turns out to be a classical trend day. On a Down Trend day market one timeframe lower without breaking the previous bar high. i.e making lower high on a 30min charts. Once the one timeframing broke on Wednesday trading in Nifty Futures.
A lot of weird things happened during Wednesday trading session. Nifty Smallcap closed positive while Nifty Spot lost more than 150 pts. India VIX spiked above 18.12 levels.
Prevailing Italian crisis, USDINR Hitting all-time high, Weak Asian Markets & Brent crude near 85 USD per barrel. Nifty started underperforming Bank Nifty Futures largely due to Nifty Auto and Nifty IT sector as it is down 2.94 and 1.87 respectively. Two more trading days left for the RBI policy to kick start. Despite all these drama Nifty Futures ended as an Inside bar.
October month started with high volatile movement in Nifty Futures where it swings between 10857 – 11090 during Monday trading session. But don’t be surprised with such sort of wild volatility swings. On the higher timeframe (Daily Charts) Nifty is still in a sideways mode as last 7 days in a row Nifty Spot tested 11000 levels regardless of where nifty went, which makes the positional trading difficult to hold on to your conclusions. Welcome to the psychological reference game.
Nifty futures on the daily timeframe shows extreme indications as it tested the 3 Standard deviation band on Thursday, September expiry day. Sideways to short-term pullbacks are expected if Nifty Futures is able to hold quick flip short-term support zone 10959 level.
Nifty Futures quick flip trading system is currently trading with immediate base supports coming around 11027-11043 levels. Price holding 11027 is very critical for the current uptrend to continue. On the Daily timeframe indicator sentiment still continues to be negative for the 6th consecutive trading session. Hence any price move down below 11027 could bring immediate weakness towards 11907 levels positionally.
Nifty Futures lost 5.4% for this month. Interestingly so far it is outperforming Bank Nifty Futures which lost 10% for Sep 2018 alone. Expiry is very near and current Nifty Futures rollover is at 23.73%. Nifty Futures premium is still at 30 points. Daily sentiment remains negative for the 5th day despite having a 100 pointer day in Nifty Futures. On the daily timeframe, Nifty Futures is still making lower lows for the third consecutive day. Momentum buyers controlled the day. Short term support comes around today’s spike base 11060. Volatility is at the extreme though India VIX down 4.27%
Emotional selling prevailed during the Tuesday’s trading session intensifying in the last 1 hour of the trading session. Emotions are running high among the traders as intraday volatility in the market is at the extreme. Immediate resistance comes around 11342. Price opening higher and sustaining higher brings a potential trend reversal towards 11400 levels.
Nifty Futures on Monday opened tumbled below the support zone 11490-11510 levels and erased all the Friday gains by EOD. Friday Short-term Momentum Buyers were followed by Monday Short-term Momentum Sellers. India VIX is back above 14 handle with 11500CE, 11600CE & 11800CE writers in control so far. Downside pressure resume back posts Monday’s price action.
Nifty futures bounced higher with short-term momentum players in control on Friday evening. Short term momentum play is witnessed at Friday low and 2 day high where momentum traders piled up at key reference levels 11464 and 11503. Immediate support zone comes around 11503 levels.
Nifty Futures intraday volatility improved much better with trendy modes coming with wild swings thereby, keeping traders in busy mode throughout the day. Daily ATR levels improvised to 116.66 levels. Tuesday’s price action showed a downward spike with extreme sentiment followed by Wednesday’s price action with a counter-trend rally in the second half of trading.
It is a volatile Thursday where Nifty futures traded in a sideways mode with increased volatility and wild swings and price manage to close around support zone 11545. Trading sentiment remain marginally elevated on the higher side with quick-flip strategy changed to positive mode around 2.20p.m.
Nifty Futures further extended the negative sentiment on Wednesday trading session tested an intraday low of 11437 followed by a sharp recovery. Yet another day momentum sellers controlled the day. Immediate quick flip support zones come around 11455 levels. Totally an emotional trading day witnessed among buyers and sellers.