Pharma is an interesting sector to watch out for the rest of the year 2018 as Nifty Pharma Index today touched the psychological reference 10000 levels and also managed to close above 10000 levels which are also fresh 2018 year to date high. Interestingly Weekly sentiment turned positive in the pharma sector that brings more medium-term bullish momentum in this counter. Monthly Sentiment too holding positive for the last two months which brings long-term bullishness in this counter.
I prefer using classical technical analysis to get a perception about the markets, especially at higher timeframes. Here are a couple of charts on US Market NASDAQ Index (Daily 200 Moving Average Charts, Quarterly – Market Profile, Quarterly ADX Divergence, Quarterly Smooth RSI) with an interesting perception which indicates potentially overvalued NASDAQ charts with a greater mean reversion odds.
Nifty Pharma one the most hated sector in this bull market for a variety of reasons. The number one reason is negative returns since Apr 2015. Till now index had lost a maximum of 42.28% from its peak. Which is very close to the drawdown during the 2008-2009 crisis period. During 2008-2009 economic crisis period Nifty Pharma had made an extreme drawdown of 44% from its peak.
Karnataka Elections results are due for this week (on 15th May 2018). Interestingly month to date performance from the major indices shows that Nifty, Bank Nifty,Nifty Financial Services, Nifty Energy are the major indices where investors piled in for the month of May. Rest of the sectors shows negative growth month to date.
Nifty Smallcap index formed a classical bullish island reversal pattern during last week of March 2018 since then price mean reverted back to 200 Moving Average on the daily charts. Last 15 trading sessions its been hovering around 200MA.
Measuring the relative performance is essential for setting the right priorities for the Investing. Relative performance, expressed in percentile rankings and explains how well a sector is performing in comparison with other sectors.