Do simple Trading strategies really work in Indian Markets? This curiosity in me raised again, after looking into a simple backtest buy at today’s close and sell at next day open which produced phenomenal returns of whopping 568% since 1993 in SPDR S&P 500 ETF (US Market). How about doing similar BTST strategy in Nifty Futures?
But in order to do trading (Buy & sell transaction in the regulated exchanges), trader also involved in paying to the Exchange(Turnover Fees), SEBI(Regulatory Fee) , Govt(STT, Stamp Duty,GST,incomes tax if any), Broker (Brokerage) and to the market (Slippages). If you are a frequent trader possibly you could know that it is really tough to Buy exactly at market close and sell exactly at market open. Due to quick movement in market price, one has to buy or sell at a higher price than the anticipated price at market open or market close. Call it as market slippages or market volatility.
One way to perfect the simple BTST (Buy today sell tommorow) to a near real-time trading rule is converting the trading strategy to Buy Nifty Futures (Go Long) exactly at 3:15 p.m i.e very close to market square off time and Sell (Exit Long) Exactly at Next Day 9.30a.m to avoid market volatility at market open we sell 15min from the market open.
|Trade Execution||MKT order|
|Dataset Length||Jan 2011 – Jun 2018|
|Trading Commissions + Slippages||0.00%|
|Position Sizing||1 lot or 75 shares per trade (Fixed shares)|
|Holding Period||Overnight BTST Strategy|
What one could get is a stunning & superior result just by playing this simple rule. Returns are a whopping 595% returns since 2011 on a 1 lakh capital and betting one lot of Nifty Futures every time.
So where is the catch? The real catch is there in transactional cost. Since the trading rule makes a trade every day, transactional cost plays a major rule in deciding the fate of the trading system in long term. So I now tried with 0.02% of the transactional cost (Exchange(Turnover Fees), SEBI(Regulatory Fee) , Govt(STT, Stamp Duty, GST, incometax if any), Broker (Brokerage) and to the market (Slippages)).
Surpringly, the system lost 67% of initial capital (1 Lakh) within 185 trades and there is no enough margin to take the next trade. So in order to place right position size, I increased the initial capital to 2 Lakhs this time. The system survived the worst drawdown period and able to make an absolute return of 94.65% over a period of Jan 2011 – July 2018. In compounded terms, Annual returns (CAGR) comes around 9.3%
Equity Curve with 2 Lakhs Initial Capital and 0.02% trading cost
Amibroker AFL – Buy Nifty Futures (Go Long) exactly at 3:15p.m and Sell (Exit Long) Exactly at Next Day 9.30a.m.
Undoubtedly, most of the market performance comes by holding positions overnight. However one cannot capitalize the entire performance returns majorly due to higher number of trades involved and transactional cost. The key learning is just dont carried away with some viral backtest report circulated in social media groups. Try to get into deeper insights to understand the nuances and the risky nature involved.