USDINR has an interesting monthly pattern. For 10 months in a row, it is one timeframing without breaking previous month lows that shows the confidence of larger timeframe players. It is a straight upward one-sided rally. All-time high comes around 74.528. Current swing move from 63.10 to 74.528 which is roughly 18% of swing move. The entire move comes from the year 2018 along.
Bullish Momentum in USDINR Kickstarted during the start of June 2018 and most likely to extend till the Sep 2018. USDINR also tested all-time high 70.89 on 14th Aug 2018. What is really missing compared to the majority of the EM Currencies is that Extreme bullish momentum seems to be missing thus far.
The Turkish lira fell to an all-time low against the dollar. The lira tumbled 15.63% against the dollar on friday to 6.4323 from the previous close. The currency — which has lost more than 40 per cent of its value this year — was 18.5 per cent lower at one point on Friday. Turkish stock market index – Borsa Istanbul 100 ended -2.23% at Friday close. Year to Date stock market index is down by 17.68%.
Yet another classical technical view on USDJPY as it comes out of the classical 200 Moving average (110.20) with a short covering. The Interesting part is that so far 7 attempts had made to close above 200MA since May 2018 all ends in vain. However current short-covering in USDJPY started with the speech of Peter Navarro, “one of President Donald Trump’s top trade advisors, said the market was overreacting to fears the administration would restrict foreign investment as part of its trade actions against China and other countries,” according to CNBC.
Just like any other Emerging Market currency – USDINR also depreciated since the start of the year 2018. The recent Debt crisis in Argentina, Turkey and Brazil. The unexpected lift in dollar US FED rates made dollar attractive and Emerging markets are witnessing a big EM assets outflow as global investors started pulling their money from Emerging Markets.
The basic Elliott wave pattern for financial markets is five waves in the direction of the main trend with corrections, i.e., moves against the trend, unfolding in three waves.
Both NSE & BSE received approval from SEBI to launch Cross Currency Derivative Pairs EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY. The trade timing in pair currency contracts would be available between 9:00 AM and 7:30 PM.
USDJPY currently trading around 108.71 with relatively thin volumes as Japanese markets are in holiday and despite rising US Markets and 10-year note yield now at 2.90%, surpassing last week’s 4-year high. trading higher USDJPY pair is little changed from Fridays closing.
On January 23, Bitcoin fell below $10,000. That’s the second time in recent days that prices dipped below this psychologically important threshold. The headlines picked up on the drama: “Bitcoin tumbles below $10,000 and is now down 25% on the year…” (CNBC, Jan 23)
Bitcoin is showing a significant sign of weakness from the price action point of view as it does a open rejection from thursdays top. On Fridays session price opened gap up and done a magical high of 16666.66 (Bitstamp Exchange) however rejected and got back into thursdays trading range with a strong rejection. Trading sentiment is maintaining negative for the last two trading session. Medium term Bitcoin Trend Exhaustion is clearly visible.
Too much of news about bitcoin(Chinese bitcoin bank, Korean ICOs ban, Jamie Dimon(JP Morgan), Goldman Sachs, ) kept the news flow busy attracting more of speculators. Despite all the negative speculation and panic dip below 3000 USD bitcoin price holds up with a strong bounce back.
USDJPY tested April 2017 low on fears that Pyongyang (North Korea) would launch another missile test over the weekend, which had added to last Friday’s USDJPY selloff. Last friday Yen had made a low around 107.32 followed by a strong pullback on monday leaving a strong tail on the bar chart again. Its the second time the pattern is repeating on north korea fears with a short term trade setup.