The daily trend of USDINR continues with higher and positive for the last 4 trading sessions and interesting volatility is also rising for the last couple of days.
USDINR Futures hits All-time high in NSE Bourses. Rapid Fall in Commodities prices & ongoing coronavirus pandemic tensions and rising demand for the dollar index, fear of growth slowdown put the emerging markets currencies at risk.
USDINR is on the verge of testing the All-time high. Momentum had geared up in the last couple of trading sessions. Previous All-time high 74.6875 is done long back around Nov 11, 2018. The current momentum is thus far driven by two factors
Amid, Corona fears and country GDP data is out at 4.7%, it is absolutely interesting times to discuss USDINR short term trend. Data released on Friday showed GDP (gross domestic product) grew by 4.7% in the December quarter, slower than the upwardly revised growth of 5.1% in the previous quarter and below the downwardly revised 5.6% in the December quarter of 2018-19
USDINR is trading in a broader level sideways mode in the band of 70.3-72 for the last 3 trading months. November month starts with a trending mode with increasing trend strength on the higher timeframe. Weekly ADX got into the incremental mode with value surpassing above 15.72 levels indicating a possible medium-term uptrend.
USDINR has an interesting monthly pattern. For 10 months in a row, it is one timeframing without breaking previous month lows that shows the confidence of larger timeframe players. It is a straight upward one-sided rally. All-time high comes around 74.528. Current swing move from 63.10 to 74.528 which is roughly 18% of swing move. The entire move comes from the year 2018 along.
Bullish Momentum in USDINR Kickstarted during the start of June 2018 and most likely to extend till the Sep 2018. USDINR also tested all-time high 70.89 on 14th Aug 2018. What is really missing compared to the majority of the EM Currencies is that Extreme bullish momentum seems to be missing thus far.
The Turkish lira fell to an all-time low against the dollar. The lira tumbled 15.63% against the dollar on friday to 6.4323 from the previous close. The currency — which has lost more than 40 per cent of its value this year — was 18.5 per cent lower at one point on Friday. Turkish stock market index – Borsa Istanbul 100 ended -2.23% at Friday close. Year to Date stock market index is down by 17.68%.
Yet another classical technical view on USDJPY as it comes out of the classical 200 Moving average (110.20) with a short covering. The Interesting part is that so far 7 attempts had made to close above 200MA since May 2018 all ends in vain. However current short-covering in USDJPY started with the speech of Peter Navarro, “one of President Donald Trump’s top trade advisors, said the market was overreacting to fears the administration would restrict foreign investment as part of its trade actions against China and other countries,” according to CNBC.
Just like any other Emerging Market currency – USDINR also depreciated since the start of the year 2018. The recent Debt crisis in Argentina, Turkey and Brazil. The unexpected lift in dollar US FED rates made dollar attractive and Emerging markets are witnessing a big EM assets outflow as global investors started pulling their money from Emerging Markets.
The basic Elliott wave pattern for financial markets is five waves in the direction of the main trend with corrections, i.e., moves against the trend, unfolding in three waves.
Both NSE & BSE received approval from SEBI to launch Cross Currency Derivative Pairs EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY. The trade timing in pair currency contracts would be available between 9:00 AM and 7:30 PM.