Yet another classical technical view on USDJPY as it comes out of the classical 200 Moving average (110.20) with a short covering. The Interesting part is that so far 7 attempts had made to close above 200MA since May 2018 all ends in vain. However current short-covering in USDJPY started with the speech of Peter Navarro, “one of President Donald Trump’s top trade advisors, said the market was overreacting to fears the administration would restrict foreign investment as part of its trade actions against China and other countries,” according to CNBC.
Just like any other Emerging Market currency – USDINR also depreciated since the start of the year 2018. The recent Debt crisis in Argentina, Turkey and Brazil. The unexpected lift in dollar US FED rates made dollar attractive and Emerging markets are witnessing a big EM assets outflow as global investors started pulling their money from Emerging Markets.
The basic Elliott wave pattern for financial markets is five waves in the direction of the main trend with corrections, i.e., moves against the trend, unfolding in three waves.
Both NSE & BSE received approval from SEBI to launch Cross Currency Derivative Pairs EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY. The trade timing in pair currency contracts would be available between 9:00 AM and 7:30 PM.
USDJPY currently trading around 108.71 with relatively thin volumes as Japanese markets are in holiday and despite rising US Markets and 10-year note yield now at 2.90%, surpassing last week’s 4-year high. trading higher USDJPY pair is little changed from Fridays closing.
On January 23, Bitcoin fell below $10,000. That’s the second time in recent days that prices dipped below this psychologically important threshold. The headlines picked up on the drama: “Bitcoin tumbles below $10,000 and is now down 25% on the year…” (CNBC, Jan 23)
Bitcoin is showing a significant sign of weakness from the price action point of view as it does a open rejection from thursdays top. On Fridays session price opened gap up and done a magical high of 16666.66 (Bitstamp Exchange) however rejected and got back into thursdays trading range with a strong rejection. Trading sentiment is maintaining negative for the last two trading session. Medium term Bitcoin Trend Exhaustion is clearly visible.
Too much of news about bitcoin(Chinese bitcoin bank, Korean ICOs ban, Jamie Dimon(JP Morgan), Goldman Sachs, ) kept the news flow busy attracting more of speculators. Despite all the negative speculation and panic dip below 3000 USD bitcoin price holds up with a strong bounce back.
USDJPY tested April 2017 low on fears that Pyongyang (North Korea) would launch another missile test over the weekend, which had added to last Friday’s USDJPY selloff. Last friday Yen had made a low around 107.32 followed by a strong pullback on monday leaving a strong tail on the bar chart again. Its the second time the pattern is repeating on north korea fears with a short term trade setup.
I personally admire that Bitcoin is one intelligent way of transacting money. Blockchain is mind blowing technology. But when come to valuing Bitcoin it is a pure bubble ready to blow up anytime. There is a financial saying that “All crashes begin with the seed of success”. Bitcoin is one financial instrument where investors come up with too much of leverage to boost their returns, compounding their woes.
Japan’s currency USDJPY, strengthened as North Korean launched a missile that crossed over Japan on 29th Aug 2017. Yen had made a low around 108.27 and made a 2-month low followed by a strong intraday pullback leaving a strong tail on the bar chart. Trading sentiment was extremely negative and the bias still holds negative. However a follow through rally is anticipated in USDJPY and has the probability to establish a short/medium term trend reversal.
EURUSD on the monthly timeframe trading in a larger balance between 1.0482 and 1.145 (rough estimate) since the start of 2015. Its been more than 2 years and EURUSD is trading is the tighter range on the larger timeframe. Now EURUSD is trading at the edge of the top balance. In the last view on EURUSD we viewed 1.0651 as a critical support zone for the uptrend to continue