WTIC Crude is showing signs of strong momentum on Friday it is up by 4% during the U.S session. Since 22nd Nov 2018 crude is trading in a consolidation band of 50-54 range with couple of times testing the psychological reference zone 50 levels. And now price is trading in the upper end of the consolidation with stronger momentum which indicates potential higher prices in the shorter term.
WTIC Crude is in a clear downtrend since the start of Oct 2018. November month alone it lost more than -21%. Currently crude is trading above the psyhogical support zone 50 which is expected to provide better support zone and short term buying is expected to happen in this zone as long as 50 is protected on the downside.
WTIC Crude in the International market had lost more than 24% in the last two months due to too many negative factors. WTIC crude oil dips below $55 to its lowest level in a year, extending a record losing streak. Sentiment went really extreme negative when US President Donald Trump tweeted “Hopefully, Saudi Arabia and OPEC will not be cutting oil production. Oil prices should be much lower based on supply!”
MCX Natural Gas November futures soared to 19% after the US weather forecasts called for an increasingly cold winter in December which raises concerns that fuel supplies may not be adequate to meet seasonal demand. Natural gas is soaring, during the month of Nov 2018 alone Natural Gas futures up by a whopping 43%.
International Gold is in consolidation mode since 16th of July 2018. Currently trading in a very tight band largely trading within a $10 range over the past week, with the price respecting the $1206 and $1216 levels. Broader range compression ranges from 1205 – 1230 levels in the last one month. The compression in the gold is getting so long on the 4 hourly charts which mostly ends up in a larger price action move.
Oil and gold are two of the top tradable commodities in the world. As mentioned here on Market Calls, gold is viewed as a safe haven asset by investors and is turned to during times of economic uncertainty. In contrast, oil is undoubtedly the king of commodities, with investors paying close attention to its volatile prices and production levels. It is also the most important commodity in the world economy. In this article we examine the correlation between gold and oil, and look at its relationship today and in the future.
Gold price action remains muted despite the stock market crashing, global events like trade war, syrian attack. Its been trading in a very compressed range 1300-1350 range since the start of year 2018. Last 4 trading sessions price is making higher high and higher lows which shows the confidence of the players. Price maintains above 200MA since 2018.
There’s a widespread assumption that supply and demand drive oil prices. Almost all economists base their oil forecasts entirely on this premise, and so do many speculators.
If the oil industry ramps up production and increases supply, economists expect a drop in oil prices. If production decreases, or some other factors hint at supply constraints, they anticipate a rise in oil’s price.
WTIC Crude currently trading around 66.13 and local MCX Crude futures trading around Rs4203/ barrel. Current leg of uptrend is almost 7 month old without any steeper corrections. Recent exponential rise are widely believed to be from the tighter supply weak dollar and extreme short term speculators. Short term sentiment is negative which could drive the WTIC price lower to 64 and 62.5 levels.
Since last two years Gold is currently trading in a very broader range 200 point range (1150-1350 on weekly timeframe). Trading sentiment for this week turned to positive which indicates bullish medium term bias. On the Daily Scale Gold is trading in a very tight range between 1265-1285 range and sentiment turned positive on the daily scale as well.
Crude Oil is trading in a very tight range. Very short term trading sentiment turns positive and trend line resistance comes around 49.2 reference where more crowded stops are visible in that reference point. And few more stops are visible around 50.2 zone.
Gold had done a short term trend reversal from the recent swing low of 1251. Trading Sentiment holds positive on both daily and weekly timeframe. Current surge towards 1280 reference brings a possibility of test towards the 1295-1300 band where gold got resisted twice in the same reference.