April Expiry is near and so lot of expectation from the trading community. India VIX jumped to 24 levels however markets are still moving a very narrow range for this expiry. Nothing much really happened since the start of April Expiry. So far the entire expiry traded in 250 point range i.e less than 2.5%
If someone is reading the profile structure for Apr 2019 series one can easily come to know that serious money is really missing thus far on the sell side and only short term buyers competed in the past followed by liquidation of those short term buyers on last Thursday and Monday trading session. Momentum sellers driven the price from 11800+ levels to the low of 11605 in a matter of 11605.
Couple of Market Generated information one should aware of at this juncture to understand what kind of competition is going on
1)ORR at Major Swing high – 11847 (Major Bearish Odds)
2)”b” shape profile structure with ABC elongation odds on 18th Apr
“b” shape balance short term reference at 11805 levels (Temporarily Bearish)
3)Island Gap reversal on Monday Trading session (Temporarily Bearish)
4)Back to Back Prominent POC (Temporarily Bearish) 11670 & 11780 levels
5)Spike Reference on 22nd Apr 2019 (Immediate short term resistance)
6)Price has broken last week low and trading very close to 2-week low at 11605.
7)Price still balancing between 11600-11850 range.
Going by the above information, one should have to initiate fresh shorts if the price started accepting down below 2 week low. Else more of sideways action is possible between 11600 – 11780 levels. Monitoring the short term balance on hourly timeframe suits good for getting a better idea about ongoing market confidence.
Those who already shorted this market right trade location to book partial profits or continue with hedged trades as short term pullback odds could increase if price started accepting above the spike reference. Which brings the possibility of markets getting into range till this expiry end.
It is good to maintain intraday positions based on the above market generated information. Very less odds that markets could favor trend followers till this expiry.