Nifty on Thursday trading ended with a negative selling pressure despite a recovery from the intraday gap down losses. However, value in Nifty Futures formed on the downside with back-to-back excess. Both Market Profile content and Indicator context still remaining negative and more positional odds for the September series to likely to test 16000 levels going forward with a 60% probability.
Immediate resistance formation around 16500 levels and one have to start focusing on volatility as global market sentiments too seems to be synchronized and likely to reflect in Indian markets as well.
When the Bearish View Invalidate
Price breaking 16500 could immediately invalidate the bearish view.
Shoot in Volatility
Current Implied volatility stands at 13.67 with 11% jump indicating that short-term volatility could be returning back to the markets. India VIX too shoots to 14+ levels indicating a potential sharp spike in volatility. At least volatility has to be monitored till mid of Sep 2021.
September series Open Interest
September series open interest levels are still very young but currently, 16500CE levels hold higher open interest levels and open interest levels around 16500 needs to be monitored on EOD basis. And 16500 could be a potential resistance zone going forward.