Market Investors always posses market expectations/anticipations. Not every time the market expectations are turning out to be the realized in any given month. But there are times the market expectations combined with market participation does develop accelerating long term maniac trends.
IndiaVIX is a volatility measure of the future expected volatility. It is calculated based on the bid and ask price of the out of the money options for near month and mid month options. India VIX during the year 2017 spent most of the time below 14 which eventually turns out to be a slow moving trending markets. In fact during the entire year 2017 , Nifty never seen a 2% negative loss on EOD basis. That shows the confidence of the majority of the market participants.
Where is the Volatility? this is the question you would be asking yourself if you are a frequent short term trader in this market. Recent market movements are filled with choppiness/whipsaw and compressed in a very tight narrow range. Trading opportunities are often very less in this kind of environment unless the India VIX moves above 18.
The RBI cut benchmark rates by 25 basis points (bps) on 4 October, bringing down the repo rate from 6.5% to 6.25% since then there is a significant underperformance in banknifty futures as compared with nifty futures. And this underperformance in banknifty futures is expected to continue in the upcoming trading sessions as every minor rallies in banknifty gets rejected at higher level and sellers stepping
Nifty Futures currently trading in a broader consolidation range for the entire august month and the September series contract is still trading in the broader range between 8575-8800. Overall Market mood is not so far benefiting the trend followers. Choppiness is again expected on Monday. However price trading and maintaining above 8600 indicates a possible continuation of the range 8575-8800.
Nifty and Bank Nifty weekly sentiment maintains positive despite weakness in the market. Last week DII continued their relentless buying mode despite weakness in the market and with the continue FII selling pressure. US Market (S&P500) closed with marginal weekly gains with a surprising fierce up move on the friday trading session. India VIX continued its downtrend despite weakness in the market which indicates lack of fear in the market at this point.
Nifty Daily continues to be in positive sentiment for the last 5 trading sessions. However the weekly sentiment holds negative for the last three weeks and likely to continue for yet another week. On contrary Banknifty sentiment turns positive on Daily and weekly charts after the friday’s price action. Bank Nifty is expected to outperform Nifty in the upcoming trading sessions.
After 6 consecutive losses nifty spot made an attempt to close positive marginally. Nifty Daily sentiment turned positive at open and maintained the positivism throughout the session. Previous Sentimental Gap Down levels are at 8217 and 8252 and the professional gap 8359 zone remains unfilled so far. Overall traders sentiment is bearish on nifty as people has mixed opinion about Bihar polls.
Nifty and Bank Nifty weekly future charts suggests the RSX is still in declining mode and at the extreme. Current downtrend is expected to end this week before bottoming out. Support is expected around 7500 zone and 15600 zone respectively. Failure to hold the support zones are likely to be more bearish for the current downtrend.
Last week nifty futures opened gap down at 8010.1 and crashed -5.9% last monday. The next day nifty made a panic intraday bottom at 7665 followed by a sharp recovery to test 8125 during the same week. Volatility in the market inclined up and it is expected to continue in the near future. Naked option writers has to be cautious as the risk reward ratio with a given volatility is very low at this point.
Willam VIX FIX study has been applied over the daily and weekly charts of Nifty futures. And VIX FIX turning down from the peak indicate a possible bottom is already in place. On the weekly charts Nifty futures has to maintain 5197 Weekly 5EMA low as support on weekly basis. And the 5EMA High weekely levels are at 8483.
Was just going thro QUSMA blog on Equity Returns Following Extreme VIX and William VIX FIX Movements. And couple of peoples are throwing ideas on implementing the strategy with percentile rank function. The same discussion also happening in Quantopian Community which inspired me to code the strategy for Nifty Futures