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Year 2018 Starts with Increased Volatility?

December 31, 2017 by Rajandran Leave a Comment

IndiaVIX is a volatility measure of the future expected volatility. It is calculated based on the bid and ask price of the out of the money options for near month and mid month options. India VIX during the year 2017 spent most of the time below 14 which eventually turns out to be a slow moving trending markets. In fact during the entire year 2017 , Nifty never seen a 2% negative loss on EOD basis. That shows the confidence of the majority of the market participants.

Will the Market Ever Shows Some Volatility?

April 12, 2017 by Rajandran 2 Comments

Where is the Volatility? this is the question you would be asking yourself if you are a frequent short term trader in this market. Recent market movements are filled with choppiness/whipsaw and compressed in a very tight narrow range. Trading opportunities are often very less in this kind of environment unless the India VIX moves above 18.

Nifty Futures and Bank Nifty Futures October 2016 Outlook

October 12, 2016 by Rajandran

The RBI cut benchmark rates by 25 basis points (bps) on 4 October, bringing down the repo rate from 6.5% to 6.25% since then there is a significant underperformance in banknifty futures as compared with nifty futures. And this underperformance in banknifty futures is expected to continue in the upcoming trading sessions as every minor rallies in banknifty gets rejected at higher level and sellers stepping

Nifty Futures September 2016 Overview

August 28, 2016 by Rajandran

Nifty Futures currently trading in a broader consolidation range for the entire august month and the September series contract is still trading in the broader range between 8575-8800. Overall Market mood is not so far benefiting the trend followers. Choppiness is again expected on Monday. However price trading and maintaining above 8600 indicates a possible continuation of the range 8575-8800.

Nifty and Bank Nifty Trend and Sentiment Analysis – December Outlook

December 7, 2015 by Rajandran Leave a Comment

Nifty and Bank Nifty weekly sentiment maintains positive despite weakness in the market. Last week DII continued their relentless buying mode despite weakness in the market and with the continue FII selling pressure. US Market (S&P500) closed with marginal weekly gains with a surprising fierce up move on the friday trading session. India VIX continued its downtrend despite weakness in the market which indicates lack of fear in the market at this point.

Nifty and Bank Nifty Trading Sentiment and Expiry Overview

November 22, 2015 by Rajandran Leave a Comment

Nifty Daily continues to be in positive sentiment for the last 5 trading sessions. However the weekly sentiment holds negative for the last three weeks and likely to continue for yet another week. On contrary Banknifty sentiment turns positive on Daily and weekly charts after the friday’s price action. Bank Nifty is expected to outperform Nifty in the upcoming trading sessions.

Reasons Why Nifty Will test 8217 before this expiry

November 3, 2015 by Rajandran 2 Comments

After 6 consecutive losses nifty spot made an attempt to close positive marginally. Nifty Daily sentiment turned positive at open and maintained the positivism throughout the session. Previous Sentimental Gap Down levels are at 8217 and 8252 and the professional gap 8359 zone remains unfilled so far. Overall traders sentiment is bearish on nifty as people has mixed opinion about Bihar polls.

Nifty and Bank Nifty Futures September Series Outlook

September 7, 2015 by Rajandran 6 Comments

Nifty and Bank Nifty weekly future charts suggests the RSX is still in declining mode and at the extreme. Current downtrend is expected to end this week before bottoming out. Support is expected around 7500 zone and 15600 zone respectively. Failure to hold the support zones are likely to be more bearish for the current downtrend.

More Volatility Ahead in September Future Series

August 30, 2015 by Rajandran 2 Comments

Last week nifty futures opened gap down at 8010.1 and crashed -5.9% last monday. The next day nifty made a panic intraday bottom at 7665 followed by a sharp recovery to test 8125 during the same week. Volatility in the market inclined up and it is expected to continue in the near future. Naked option writers has to be cautious as the risk reward ratio with a given volatility is very low at this point.

VIX FIX Signals a possible bottom in Nifty Futures?

May 14, 2015 by Rajandran 4 Comments

Willam VIX FIX study has been applied over the daily and weekly charts of Nifty futures. And VIX FIX turning down from the peak indicate a possible bottom is already in place. On the weekly charts Nifty futures has to maintain 5197 Weekly 5EMA low as support on weekly basis. And the 5EMA High weekely levels are at 8483.

Equity Returns after Extreme VIX and William VIX FIX Readings

March 17, 2015 by Rajandran 9 Comments

Was just going thro QUSMA blog on Equity Returns Following Extreme VIX and William VIX FIX Movements. And couple of peoples are throwing ideas on implementing the strategy with percentile rank function. The same discussion also happening in Quantopian Community which inspired me to code the strategy for Nifty Futures

Nifty and Bank Nifty January Hourly Futures – Overview

January 12, 2015 by Rajandran 1 Comment

Nifty and Bank Nifty hourly charts maintains the downtrend with resistance zone coming around 8366.9 and 19010.9 Trend will reverse to upwards direction if the resistance zone breaks on the hourly charts (on hourly basis). It should be noted that last Friday Dowjones ends with a -170 points after two big continuous positive streaks.

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Required US Government Disclaimer & CTFC Rule 4.41

​Futures trading contains substantial risk and is not suitable for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing ones financial security or lifestyle. Only consider risk capital that should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. CTFC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS SUCH AS LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. All trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc., discussed in this website or advertisement are for illustrative purposes only and not construed as specific advisory recommendations. All ideas and materials presented herein are for information and educational purposes only. No system or trading methodology has ever been developed that can guarantee profits or prevent losses. The testimonials and examples used herein are exceptional results which do not apply to average people and are not intended to represent or guarantee that anyone will achieve the same or similar results. Trades placed on the reliance of Trend Methods systems are taken at your own risk for your own account. This is not an offer to buy or sell futures interests.

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