Nifty Futures lost 5.4% for this month. Interestingly so far it is outperforming Bank Nifty Futures which lost 10% for Sep 2018 alone. Expiry is very near and current Nifty Futures rollover is at 23.73%. Nifty Futures premium is still at 30 points. Daily sentiment remains negative for the 5th day despite having a 100 pointer day in Nifty Futures. On the daily timeframe, Nifty Futures is still making lower lows for the third consecutive day. Momentum buyers controlled the day. Short term support comes around today’s spike base 11060. Volatility is at the extreme though India VIX down 4.27%
Nifty Futures Daily Charts
Nifty Futures – Market Profile Charts
Witnessed morning sellers and after sellers are not a serious seller and most of the trading activity started building above previous day low indicates most of the sellers who came into the market are more of emotional sellers which resulted in last 45min stop hunting activity in the form of a Spike. Tuesday’s trading is more of a roller coaster ride and price swings back and forth with extreme volatility. Relatively tough to manage a trade if someone is not getting the right context since the morning.
Short term resistance at previous double distribution zone at 11240 levels. Since the market had fallen steeper the odds are low that the recovery will be steeper. Rather sideways to downward continuation is the most likely situation with increased volatility. This expiry possibly upper limit is capped at 11240 levels. Any downtrend continuation requires price acceptance below the spike base 11060 levels.
Also remember price is trading back and forth around psychological reference levels 11000 for the third consecutive day. Hence trading won’t be that easier here.