Rajandran R Telecom Engineer turned Full-time Derivative Trader. Mostly Trading Nifty, Banknifty, USDINR and High Liquid Stock Derivatives. Trading the Markets Since 2006 onwards. Using Market Profile and Orderflow for more than a decade. Designed and published 100+ open source trading systems on various trading tools. Strongly believe that market understanding and robust trading frameworks are the key to the trading success. Writing about Markets, Trading System Design, Market Sentiment, Trading Softwares & Trading Nuances since 2007 onwards. Author of Marketcalls.in and Co-Creator of Algomojo (Algorithmic Trading Platform for DIY Traders)

Nifty and Bank Nifty July Futures Outlook

1 min read

It is interesting to note that DII’s are relentlessly buying the equity market right from 12th June 2015 despite Greece Exit fears, Global Meltdown and Indian Market seems to be resilient to such macro events. Monday panic gap down in Nifty Index countered by late session rally on both monday and tuesday.

dii activity
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Nifty Futures tested below previous weekly low (8251) and made Monday panic bottom at 8191.4 and recovered from there with two late rally sessions. Nifty futures previous week high (8433) is not yet taken off despite last week close above 5EMA(high) which indicates still longer timeframe buyers are not yet convinced to extend the rally. And Nifty Futures level 8433 remains a critical deciding point for the extension of rally on the weekly timeframe. Relative Strength is positive and in uptrend since last three weeks and VIX FIX still holds the bullish setup.

Nifty Weekly Charts

Bank Nifty on the weekly charts haven’t surpassed previous week high, haven’t closed above EMA-High(18362) and tested previous day low. From the positive aspect Relative strength maintains positive for last two weeks and VIX VIX FIX still holds the bullish setup.

Bank Nifty Weekly

Nifty Futures Hourly Charts

Nifty Hourly Charts

Nifty and Bank Nifty futures broken above the resistance zone during the late session rally and currently the hourly supports zone comes around 8263 and 17970 respectively. Breaking down the support levels on the hourly timeframe indicates a possible resumption of downtrend again.

Bank Nifty Hourly Charts
Bank Nifty Hourly

Nifty Open Interest Lookup

Nifty Option series begins with higher open interest at 7900PE and 8000PE and later some open interest built up near 8200PE post the nifty made panic monday bottom. Possibly 8200 is the zone which attracted put writers post the panic bottom. On the Call side strikes no major call writing is visible at this point compared to the put strikes which is again a good derivative sentiment for those who bet on the longs.

Open Interest

RRG Graph – Indian Sectors

Relative Rotational Graph shows that CNX Pharma, CNX Realty, CNX PSU Bank are the potential outperformers relative to Nifty Index. However CNX Energy, CNX IT, CNX PSE, CNX Infra are the possible laggards in the short run.

RRG Graph Indian Sector

Rajandran R Telecom Engineer turned Full-time Derivative Trader. Mostly Trading Nifty, Banknifty, USDINR and High Liquid Stock Derivatives. Trading the Markets Since 2006 onwards. Using Market Profile and Orderflow for more than a decade. Designed and published 100+ open source trading systems on various trading tools. Strongly believe that market understanding and robust trading frameworks are the key to the trading success. Writing about Markets, Trading System Design, Market Sentiment, Trading Softwares & Trading Nuances since 2007 onwards. Author of Marketcalls.in and Co-Creator of Algomojo (Algorithmic Trading Platform for DIY Traders)

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