Still, Nifty Futures is struggling to find its direction for this month. So far in this series, Nifty went down 10552 levels and no supportive active from the sellers and the price manage to move to the other side of the consolidation band 10800 levels. No supportive action from the buyers at 10800 levels price again rotated towards the center of the consolidation band 10560 – 10800.
Nifty found short term resistance around 10500 zone and currently in the phase of short term correction. Trading sentiment and profile sentiment both turned to negative mode which brings more downside pressure for nifty in the very near term. On the downside 10350 and 10248 are the two major focus levels to watch in the very short term.
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Nifty and Bank Nifty weekly sentiment maintains positive despite weakness in the market. Last week DII continued their relentless buying mode despite weakness in the market and with the continue FII selling pressure. US Market (S&P500) closed with marginal weekly gains with a surprising fierce up move on the friday trading session. India VIX continued its downtrend despite weakness in the market which indicates lack of fear in the market at this point.
The recent move in Nifty Futures are clearly driven by Short term players. Nifty Futures positive sentiment continues however sooner or later we can expect the trend to reverse when the sentiment gets over heated. Bank Nifty is showing divergence as the sentiment turns negative and continues to underperform Nifty Futures.
It is interesting to note that DII’s are relentlessly buying the equity market right from 12th June 2015 despite Greece Exit fears, Global Meltdown and Indian Market seems to be resilient to such macro events. Monday panic gap down in Nifty Index countered by late session rally on both monday and tuesday.
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The Nifty Futures and Bank Nifty Futures continued to move up last week, gaining 2.2% and 1.0% respectively on close. And Bank Nifty is relatively under-performing in the recent uptrend. However this may so far foreign investors are relentlessly selling in equity market and Debt Market and had pulled out more than Rs 14,000 crore. The Outflow of Debt Market is far steeper than Equity Market.
Nifty and Bank Nifty futures is in downtrend in most of its timeframe. Last week Nifty closed above 5EMA(high) but the subsequent week closed below 5EMA(high) however bank nifty futures is not able to close above 5EMA(high) in the last week and still continuing its long term downtrend.
High probability bottom signal in Nifty Future on the EOD charts. Autocorrelation maintains negative which indicates a possible mean reversion mode in Nifty futures and the oversold smooth oscillator indicates the oversold level. 8498.1 is the previous low on 10th Feb 2015. And also noticeably there is a gap below 8427 which remains open since 15th Jan 2015.
Nifty Daily charts shows that very recently 10 day auto correlation turned positive and the smooth RSI oscillator indicates trend strength is accelerating. And hourly charts also turned to positional buy trend with hourly supports coming around 8671. One has to exit their long if the autcorrelation turns negative or the Smooth oscillator turn down below 50 on EOD basis.
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