Nifty and Bank Nifty futures is in downtrend in most of its timeframe. Last week Nifty closed above 5EMA(high) but the subsequent week closed below 5EMA(high) however bank nifty futures is not able to close above 5EMA(high) in the last week and still continuing its long term downtrend.
One notable observation is Both Nifty and BankNifty futures are hovering just above 5EMA(low) long term support zone 8573.29 and 18382. And the rising RSX shows a possible bullishness on the longer timeframe. More confirmations could arrive if the Daily RSX shows a turnaround from the sliding RSX value. At this point of time Daily RSX is around -49 and -57 respectively and in declining mode. A turnaround in RSX value on Hourly followed by Daily timeframe at this juncture could bring a potential mean reversion in the longer term uptrend.
Nifty and Bank Nifty futures closing below 5EMA(low) on closing basis might add more strength to the downtrend.
Nifty Options – Open Interest
Nifty Options shows higher open interest around 9000CE which indicates huge call writers believing in 9000 as current expiry resistance. Next to 9000CE others strikes like 8500PE, 8600PE and 8800CE holds the higher open interest. Still 9 more trading session left for the April Expiry.
1)Foreign Exchange Reserves numbers are likely to be reported on 24th April. Foreign Exchange Reserves in India decreased to 340410 USD Million in the week ended April 11th, 2015 from 343005 USD Million in the previous week
2)Infrastucture Output Year on Year figures are likely to be released on 30th April. Construction output in India increased 1.45 percent in February of 2015 over the same month in the previous year.
3)Indian economy is now clearly on a recovery path with a 7.4 per cent growth in the first three quarters and the new government is committed to maintain overall macroeconomic conditions on a sustained basis” – Finance Minister Arun Jaitley