Nifty Futures showed decent intraday volatility in January series however it failed to show positional volatility and totally traded in a broader sideways market between 17800 – 17300 for most of the January 2023 series. Almost 6 weeks of sideways price action and thus far one of the lowest monthly range of 513 points despite reasonable earning season and descent results from most of the Nifty 50 companies
From the Market Profile charts to positional temporary resistance holds at 17340+ levels in Jan Series and 23rd Jan 2023 we can extract the trading context that Nifty futures took temporary supports around 18100 levels and getting prepared to break the temporary resistance zone and brings positive attitude towards positional longs and mostly likely possible odds of breaking the broader balance range.
More crowded shorts were witnessed in the last week in the form of three consecutive poor lows and markets are now moving against those weaker-hand crowded short-term sellers forcing those players to cover their old shorts.
Possible odds are higher for Nifty Futures to move positionally towards 18500 and 19000 levels in the Feb 2023 series ahead of the major event Budget 2023 and RBI rate policy planned during Feb 2023. What is so weird is IV still remains in the 13-14 range ahead of the major event with not much anticipation towards the budget event. This brings the odds of sideways intraday markets but still, the major price action could be covered in the form of gapups towards 18500 and 19000 with 18100 as base temporary support.