Nifty March 2021 Futures – Short Term Trend Reversal in Progress

Last Friday Nifty Futures had done a sharp intraday trend reversal a freaking long liquidation. Profit booking for the short-term market participants has been seen right from the start of the day.

Nifty Daily Sentiment

Nifty Daily timeframe is holding still a positive sentiment. However on the verge of shift in trend sentiment. Any potential shift in sentiment from positive to negative could influence a shorter term downtrend.

Market Profile Important Positional Levels to Monitor

Last Friday Nifty had created a double distribution structure with huge single print zones Indicating a formation of potential resistance zones around 15150-15225 levels.

There are two important positional levels one should monitor on the downside the PPOC and R-PPOC at 14850 levels(Visual weaker reference) and the Current month low at 14658 levels.

Nifty Hourly

Nifty hourly trading system will likely to shift negative if the reference level 14961 is broken on the downside. For the upcoming week any sustained move down below last friday closing only increases the odds of downside selling pressure

Monthly Bollinger Bands

Monthly bollinger bands are at overheated levels and price is trading at the upper end of the monthly bollinger band levels. Does it spot any major trend reversals? Probably not yet. However Very short term trend reversals and medium term trend reversals are possible at this juncture.

Monthly Open Interest Levels

Option writers are currently crowded around 14000PE and 14500PE on the downside and 15500CE and 16000CE Options on the higher side.

What Strategy one have to Adopt?

Thus far this series is a mini roller coaster ride with very fast short term trend reversals. The one who dont have the mindset to reverse their positional trades faster could perish and often struck with bias.

If in case one looking for peaceful trades to trade on the bearish side one could consider invoking Buy – 15100PE 25 March Expiry and Selling 14700PE – 25th March 2021 Expiry.

Max Profit Potential – 19005
Max Loss Risk – 10995

Trading a spread could eventually avoid overtrading and also protect the trader from premium decay on the buyside of the options and helps price action traders to focus on the price action and there by avoiding emotional trading decisions most of the times.