Nifty Futures during May series ended marginally negative despite news factors like Karnataka hung assembly, EM Currency crisis, Italy Crisis. Year to date Nifty is up by 1.7%. The first half of the June Expiry series trading could be in the range of 10600-10800 range. Volatility Index (India VIX) also trading below sub 14 levels indicating a muted trend in the near future.
DIIs Removing their Index Hedges
DIIs started removing their hedges going towards the June series. Probably now DIIs are expecting less of news based uncertainty. To be noted that April month DIIs are adding index futures shorts (mostly for hedging purpose) and rollover completely to May series.
Nifty Spot – Market Profile
So far in the year 2018, nifty is spending more time in trading around previous year high level – 10552 which is also the developing POC for current series. More rotations around this series is expected. Half Back for the current year also comes around 10561 levels. Bullishness is expected as long as price holds above the halfback/D-POC levels.
Nifty Option – Open Interest
June series is quite young. Currently, highest open interest in calls is at 11000 and the highest open interest in puts at 10600. Which puts the overall expiry range around 10600-11000 for the series. However, this data is quite dynamic but doesn’t change all in sudden and also it doesn’t change levels very frequently and hence requires monitor on day to day basis.