“Sometimes your best investments are the ones you don’t make.” Donald Trump
As indicated in the previous nifty weekly observation the momentum was shifting in favor of bears and the same has happened. Nifty future has been showing the weakness already in past weeks since the rallies were shallow and declines were happening of higher volume.
We have witnessed three outside bearish reversal bars in march month every week, Even After a gap up opening on any global positive news or local triggers market has not been able to hold the gains or reverse the trend and has declined sharply in favor of the bears. On the broad range from chart above one can clearly see the trading range for nifty future since january 2015 till date.
Nifty future after facing resistance at top end of the range in january last week declined and bounced from the break and bounce level marked on the charts in early February and made life time highs in market 1st week.
Even this breakout from the range was not successful and soon market drifted lower and now closed below the support level & around the lower end of the broader trading range.
The bulls look exhausted now and the trend has turned in favor of bears. The short-term and medium term trend both are showing downward momentum. weekly RSI @ 55.08 is the lowest since march 2014 which is not a good news for the bulls.
On upside the hurdle for the week is at 8735 and 8785 is the major resistance. Once above 8785 nifty closed the bulls shall be in charge again which as of now looks less likely to happen. However on the downside 8540 is last support below which the correction will be sharp and swear. if Nifty is unable to hold 8540 this expiry expect to see 8250-8150 very soon.
Disclosure: Holding (Sold Nifty calls @ higher Premium) with trailing stops to protect the gains march series.
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