Nifty Short term trend continues to be in a positive zone with an immediate single print support zone comes around 12080 and 12125 levels. However first week of December series is likely to be a cautious uptrend as macro events like GDP Announcements & RBI Policy announcements are nearing
Nifty Futures trading in 10600 – 10900 range and this range is getting even tighter possibly 10700 – 10900 in the near term as the call/put writers are writing at tightly packed zones. When Comes to Nifty Futures Index short stops are hunted in a phase manner. And more short term stop clusters are in the zone from 10790 – 10850 levels. Short term sentiment maintains positive for last 5 trading sessions.
On Fridays trading session price opened lower though the trading sentiment on Fridays trading session is positive price maintained to close below thursdays pullback low reference. Value formed lower to overlapping and trading sentiment turned to negative despite one timeframing higher for 5 consecutive trading sessions on Daily timeframe.
On Mondays trading session price is able to find a new higher equilibrium compare to the Fridays session as value is created higher and market sentiment too revived to positive mode despite Fridays negative close. Entire June trading session is so far in a compressed 100 point trading range between 9600-9700.
Nifty had done a “W” shaped price pattern so far during Nov 2016 to till date which is very much visual from the charts. Currently price is trading around the Intermediate resistance zone 8315 levels as Sentimental RSI is currently at the extreme. Previous Top Down Analysis indicates that still price is showing a consolidation pattern in both Daily and Weekly Charts.
Top Down Approach provides us the macro visual perspective of the market participation. We will start with monthly charts to understand the long term participation, weekly charts to understand the intermediate term players and the daily charts to understand how the shorter timeframe players are behaving.
Bank Nifty future closed the week at 18764.15 after opening for the day at 18525. The low for day made 18478. week on week it’s the third weekly positive closing for bank nifty in the month of May 2015.
What a volatility, Nifty is making 100 points up and 100 points down move just like that. Nifty closed the session on friday at 8261.20 after making the intraday high of 8296. week ahead starting from 18th May 2015 nifty future will face hurdle at 8350 once sustain above this level 8495 will be next resistance for the week and there after 8550. On downside the support area is 8080-8020 below which 7800-7700 will be next.
Willam VIX FIX study has been applied over the daily and weekly charts of Nifty futures. And VIX FIX turning down from the peak indicate a possible bottom is already in place. On the weekly charts Nifty futures has to maintain 5197 Weekly 5EMA low as support on weekly basis. And the 5EMA High weekely levels are at 8483.
Nifty future closed the week at 8210.55 after making the intraday high of 8247.Volatility continues to be high in the past week after bears fully controlled the whole april series. The first week of may was again in favor of bears.
Nifty future made the low of 8280.90 and closed the week at 8318.80, The short-term and medium term trends are down and nifty is just moving around its 200 day moving average. From the daily charts above we can clearly see a head and shoulder formation and which is very clear in breaking its neckline.
Trading with no plan can be devastating for your capital as well as emotions. Nifty future has been steadily moving upwards from last few trading sessions. We have seen a decent recover already after march 2015 FNO expiry.Nifty future closed the week at 8811.45 this is slightly above the 50% Fibonacci retracement from the recent bottom.