on 6th Dec Nifty Futures hit a intraday low of 8000 since then nifty had gained nearly 844.4 points in just 14 trading sessions. Literally Q3 Season, surprising RBI rate cut from RBI Governer and European QE had boosted the sentiment. Put writers are heavily building around 8500PE, 8600PE, 8700PE and right from the start of the series 8000PE maintains the highest open interest.
Economic Factors that could bring volatility in the Market
1)Recently on monday (26th Jan) US President Barack Obama attended the India-US business summit in New Delhi and announced investments and loans worth $4 billion by American agencies as part of measures to bolster trade with India.
2)Russian rouble fell to a newer low after The currency fell over 7% to over 68 to the dollar after the S&P cut Russia’s credit rating to BB+.
3)RBI Interest rate decision is pending on 3rd February 2015.
4)GDP rate grown Y-O-Y data to be released on 9th February 2015
5)IIP Numbers on 12th February 2015.
6)Union Budget on 28th Febrary 2015
#Breaking Finance Ministry Sources: Expect stock exchanges to remain open on budget day
— Bloomberg TV India (@BloombergTVInd) January 23, 2015
On the Hourly charts both Nifty and Bank Nifty maintains the positional uptrend. Any sort of trend following in nifty and bank nifty futures would have yielded descent returns in this month. Moreover we had a slightly increasing volatility for the current month.
Current support zone for Nifty Futures comes around 8670 and for bank nifty futures support zone comes around 19629.
Nifty Options Open Interest
Hi Raj,
A particular AFL gives signal based on logic in the code. I was thinking of factor(3,4) in a kind of control system in the code. Since we know about previous performance we can change two controlling factors atr and factor by AFL to improve the win ratio and reduce drawdowns. For example after single leap above 600 points in banknifty we can there is typical seesaw which result in loss which can be managed by either increasing risk or reducing the factor to make it more sensitive by squaring of loss and gain. This can be done for say seesaw mode for 7 buy/sell signalls. What we do is a matter of pattern identification,
What do you of think of adopting control system in supertrend.