Jan 2016 is one of the best month for bears! Nifty futures lost 5.2% and Bank Nifty futures lost -8.2%. Nifty made a bottom at 7233.8 and Bank Nifty made a pullback from the lows 14730. The pullback rally was sharp enough despite the prevailing negative sentiment among traders.
Last Friday global market went for a strong rally after Bank of Japan surprised markets on Jan 29,2015 with a negative interest rate announcement to stimulate the economy.
How the markets are reacting to the BOJ's negative rates surprise https://t.co/fNYiGttttc pic.twitter.com/eDxn5QTOoZ
— Bloomberg Markets (@markets) January 29, 2016
Nifty Hourly Charts
Nifty and Bank Nifty hourly charts continues to be in the shorter term uptrend. However Bank Nifty futures lags Nifty futures. Divergence between the two instruments was clearly visible on Friday trading session where Nifty was trading in the positive territory however bank nifty dropped due to poor Q3 results from major banks. Shorter term resistance points in Nifty futures are 7627 and the Gap Zone 7734 and support comes around 7400 zone. Bank Nifty resistance zone comes around 15630 and support zone for Bank Nifty comes at 15277
Bank Nifty Hourly Charts
Open Interest Builtup
Since the series is young its tough to get clues from the Options Open Interest built up. At the start of the series 7400PE holds the higher open interest indicating that Option players are so far confident of holding 7400 for this expiry. Declining India VIX down below 18 handle suggests that extreme negative sentiment in the market is fading out.
Market Expectation
Whenever markets bouncing from the bottom with a counter rally it spends most of the time within a consolidation on the broader range. So one can expect this FEB series to play with a tight packed range between 7425-7750 range. And any close below 7400 is more likely to turn the trend bearish again.
Upcoming Economic Events in Februrary
1)2nd FEB – RBI Interest Rate Decision
2)8th FEB – GDP Growth Rate
3)12th FEB – Indian Industrial Production Numbers
4)15th FEB – WPI Inflation Numbers
5)29th FEB – Union Budget 2016
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