USDINR enters into the stage of positional longs on 4th May and till to date continues its sideways journey for the last 4 trading sessions with Quick-flip supports around 75.58.
Recent Island Gap reversal in USDINR closed on last friday trading session followed by an immediate rally towards 75.75 levels.
On 30th April , Trend Exhaustion on the downside with Extreme indication is seen on hourly timeframe which add to the positional bullishness.
On the upper-side price been struggling to cross around the psychological reference 76. Last three bullish attempt towards 76.0000 levels failed to cross the resistance levels.
However Fridays price action showed some positive setup. Any follow through rally on Mondays trading session is likely to be extended in short term towards 77.00 and 77.50 levels (May 2020 futures contract).
India has so far outlined a 17 lakh crore welfare package providing direct cash transfers and food security measures to give relief to millions of poor
Markets expecting second Economic stimulus package for Small and Medium level businesses this week and hence currencies could pick up more volatility if things are getting realized.
GOVT TO ANNOUNCE ECONOMIC PACKAGE NEXT WEEK; MSMES TO GET RELIEF, REFORMS TO DRAW FDI ON CARDS: BUSINESS TODAY— Redbox India (@REDBOXINDIA) May 9, 2020
The government on Friday increased its market borrowing estimate by staggering Rs 4.2 lakh crore to Rs 12 lakh crore for the current fiscal to deal with the expected shortfall in revenue due to the impact of COVID-19 crisis on the economy.
Last Friday 10 Year India Bond Yield ended lowest since 2009.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday announced the cut-off yield on the new 10-year bond at 5.79%, the lowest since February 2009.
Rating Agency Moodys said last friday , it expected India to see zero growth in financial year 2021 and bounce back to a 6.6% GDP growth in FY22, while the fiscal deficit is seen rising to 5.5% of GDP in FY21 versus the budgeted estimate of 3.5%
Overall momentum in USDINR could pick up if USDINR manages to trade above 75.85 levels and that could break the immediate hurdles around 76.00 levels targeting 77 and 77.5 in the short term.