The daily trend of USDINR continues with higher and positive for the last 4 trading sessions and interesting volatility is also rising for the last couple of days.
USDINR is on the verge of testing the All-time high. Momentum had geared up in the last couple of trading sessions. Previous All-time high 74.6875 is done long back around Nov 11, 2018. The current momentum is thus far driven by two factors
USDINR has an interesting monthly pattern. For 10 months in a row, it is one timeframing without breaking previous month lows that shows the confidence of larger timeframe players. It is a straight upward one-sided rally. All-time high comes around 74.528. Current swing move from 63.10 to 74.528 which is roughly 18% of swing move. The entire move comes from the year 2018 along.
Bullish Momentum in USDINR Kickstarted during the start of June 2018 and most likely to extend till the Sep 2018. USDINR also tested all-time high 70.89 on 14th Aug 2018. What is really missing compared to the majority of the EM Currencies is that Extreme bullish momentum seems to be missing thus far.
Just like any other Emerging Market currency – USDINR also depreciated since the start of the year 2018. The recent Debt crisis in Argentina, Turkey and Brazil. The unexpected lift in dollar US FED rates made dollar attractive and Emerging markets are witnessing a big EM assets outflow as global investors started pulling their money from Emerging Markets.
USDINR Daily charts are showing clear divergence when fisher transform indicator is applied over the charts. Fisher transform generally converts any probability distribution to Gaussian Probability Distribution. Thus making the indicator better in identifying turning point at the edges and helps trader in identifying trend reversals in the discretionary trading.
After Dr.Raguram Rajan’s(RBI Governer) announcement that he will not continue in office for the second term, stock markets on Monday reacted with gap down and recovered on relief of BRexit fears. However from the currency front USDINR ended at 67.6 with strong momentum . EOD sentiment is holding positive and also the coral trend indicator turns greens indicating that a possible uptrend from here on.
Interesting Divergence behavior in USDINR Daily charts while trying to use Fisher Transform indicator by Ehlers. Almost every divergence as shown in the above charts extended any where between 28-34 days. Divergence generally occurs when an indicator and the price of an asset are heading in opposite directions. Current positive divergence is running on for last 32 days i.e USDINR rate is slowing and moving down however fisher indicator is turning upwards.
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Which is Good for Stock Markets? This is the very first question asked to all the workshop participants. And the following questions are shown on the slide and asked the participants to identify the factors which are good to the market.
Since strength of INR (Falling USD/INR Chart) is more or less vertically followed by rising Nifty and Bank nifty –it is safe to assume that FII’s are dominant in present market situations and more likely, USD Fluctuations are prone to create risks in the above mentioned assets.
Here is a simple example from Mr Jayant Manglik (Religare Online) explaining how the impact of Change in Comex Gold Price impact MCX Gold (if USDINR rates are assumed to be constant. He also discuss how USDINR movement affects MCX Gold rates keeping Comex Gold rates as constant. Useful video must for the begineers to understand the dynamics of the commodity market.