Natural gas (03.12.2014) made high round $4.6 on unexpected cold front in November month while upcoming mild weather forecast forced trader to book profit on higher levels.
On fundamental side, mild weather in US expected to continue for coming 2 weeks & will put more pressure on prices. On other hand current inventory level of natural gas is 3432 bcf which is down by 400bcf compare to 5 year average. Inventory forecast for this week is -51 while 5 year average withdrawal is -17. These inventory level might help natural gas prices to hold above current year low.
Now natural gas is trading around $3.772 & as we can see on charts, natural gas once again came below the long term descending trendline running from 2013 high of $5.475. Technical picture suggest for more downside move towards previously broken support & then towards 2014 low at $3.611. However the volume associated with this move is quite low & thus this move could be temporary.
Mcx natural gas trading at 235.50 mark while i am writing. Mcx natural gas has almost same story , keep falling after putting a temporary high of 281 while falling continue on mild weather forecast. From technical aspect break below support trendline & 61.8% fibonacci retracement suggest for more weakness ahead. Most possibly natural gas can fill the contract gap ( 229-223.5) on charts. It will be very interesting to watch when the gap will be filled & winter will arrive again.
Based on above studies, we will prefer to sell natural gas on some rise for mention downside targets in coming trading session.
Note – Above technical analysis is not a buy/sell recommendation. For recommendations Contact Us