COT refers to Commitment of Traders. The Commitments of Traders (CoT) is a weekly report released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The CoT report outlines how different types of traders are positioned in the futures markets. COT reports are delayed reports(release on every friday) about the participant wise open interest data and provide a breakdown of each Tuesday’s open interest for markets.
Natural gas (10.12.2014) respected our last article & fall to the mention target area. As always traders becoming more bearish due to last week fall in natural gas & we feel its time to have a sharp look at future prospect.
On fundamental side, mild weather in US expected to continue for coming 2 weeks & will put more pressure on prices. On other hand current inventory level of natural gas is 3432 bcf which is down by 400bcf compare to 5 year average. Inventory forecast for this week is -51 while 5 year average withdrawal is -17. These inventory level might help natural gas prices to hold above current year low.
Gold fail to get stability above $1172 mark & fall back. However the move was not well supported by volume due to bank holiday in US market. Coming back to technical an triangle pattern ranging from $1172 – $1153 will declare the direction with break out.
Gold consolidating after sharp fall & trying to retest the broken support level turned into resistance. WE may witness more weakness as far as $1182 area remains as EOD resistance.
Now natural gas is trading around $4.49 & as we can see on charts, natural gas continue trading in a minor downside channel & touching the top line of descending channel which was able to stop the rally 2 times earlier. At the same time this area is just below 38.2% february correction level as well as indicators are turning negative.
Now natural gas is trading around $6.37 & as we can see on charts , this area is just below the 61.8% feb correction level of the last downside wave. As the last downside move was very ideal technical move & in respect to that current bounce should be very ideal.
Now natural gas march future is trading around $4.810 & as we can see on charts the over bought indicators added more space after yesterday profit booking session.
Now natural gas is trading around $4.460 & as we can see on charts the continue trading above $4.418 is indicating that the rally isn’t complete & we may witness further bullishness on coming trading session. However we also witness a possibility of negative divergence on RSI but it still has space for upside. Consolidation before the contract expiry providing more opportunity for buyers.
Now natural gas is trading around $3.464 & as we can see on charts , natural gas was unable to provide a close below parallel support area around $3.398 & the bounce we witness yesterday may produce a double bottom pattern for coming days. At the same time the candlestick formation is quite bullish & hinting for a bounce ahead.
Now Natural gas is trading around 205 ($3.350) & as we can see on charts , its reaching to the 3rd possible bottom of current descending channel. At the same time there is a support of 161.8% february correction level which may represent the 5th Elliot wave completion.
Now natural gas is trading around 192 ($3.478) & as we can see on charts ng is facing resistance around multiple resistance area. This area also represent the 50% feb correction level of last ascedning wave & we have already seen a reversal few weeks ago.