As shared in our previous weekly report nifty future break down after the channel was broken and trend continued in favor of bears. The march series has been what the most bears had been waiting from so many months. A complete correction with added volume and deeper cuts with no respite for bulls at any levels. A cut of 358 points on spot was witnessed in March FnO Expiry week.
We have witnessed three outside bearish reversal bars in march month every week, Even After a gap up opening on any global positive news or local triggers market has not been able to hold the gains or reverse the trend and has declined sharply in favor of the bears. On the broad range from chart above one can clearly see the trading range for nifty future since january 2015 till date.
Nifty future closed the week on a very weak note. The momentum slowly has been in favor of bears. Fridays trading session witnessed heavy selling pressure after. Nifty future opened gap up at 8873.90 and slide down continuously from the opening correcting all the way to make intraday lows of 8652.15 and closed the week at 8674.40
Bank nifty future opened the day at 19701.55 and made the intraday low at 19512 before making the close after a strong bounce from lows in later half of the trading session at 19907.80. Markets closed on a positive note for the day but negative for the week.
What a roller coaster ride on Saturday the Union Budget special session. It was a session of euphoria, panic & stress for many and in the mean time it was a day of joy for few.The market on event day witnessed sharp whipsaws in nifty and banknifty all day before finally making a close at 8964.65.
Nifty recovered all the correction made during the first four days of the week on friday’s trading session. After opening at 8769 it was just a one way move slow and steady and picking up pace in the later half of the day making intraday high of 8900 and the closing at 8889.95 almost near the highest point of the day.
Week starting from Monday 23 Feb,2015 is going to be an event driven week for indian stock market since we are going to have the Budget from Modi Government and all the expectations, surprises & speculations of whats going to happen with regards to the policies or laws or rebates will come to an end after the whole budget is out and open before the market players and public.
Since strength of INR (Falling USD/INR Chart) is more or less vertically followed by rising Nifty and Bank nifty –it is safe to assume that FII’s are dominant in present market situations and more likely, USD Fluctuations are prone to create risks in the above mentioned assets.
The nifty future broke out of the linear regression channel and closed above the same. The short term moving average has also given the crossover over the medium term moving average. Daily RSI bounced strongly from 45 to now trading at 61.18 with a positive momentum in favor of the bulls.
Nifty Future has had seven consecutive down close days followed by a uptrend and short term trend is definitely down. The major support area is now at 8550. This is 50% retracement level from the previous lows of the trend as same can be seen from chart above.
Nifty future closed the week on a very weak note. After the one way rally from past couple weeks of January series nifty future was looking tired and consolidating around 8800 to 9000 range. last whole week the market tried to hold above 8800 levels and tested 9000+ intraday highs on friday before sliding up towards 8900 and lower.
Positive surprise from RBI was welcomed by market players and nifty future opened huge gap up in past week on Thursday trading session.From chart above one can clearly see the nifty future took support on the trendline after the breakout and is now trading well above the same. Momentum indicator is also signs of positive uptrend in short and medium term. The volume is also supporting the chart since the triangle breakout was on higher volume.