Rajandran R Founder of Marketcalls and Co-Founder Algomojo. Full-Time Derivative Trader. Expert in Designing Trading Systems (Amibroker, Ninjatrader, Metatrader, Python, Pinescript). Trading the markets since 2006. Mentoring Traders on Trading System Designing, Market Profile, Orderflow and Trade Automation.

The pawns have been sacrificed, but the king is in no danger

1 min read

Folks, the assault on Nifty looks like a failed coup with some casualties (such as REL, Bharti, Relcapital etc). But King Reliance lives on. (And what else really matters? lol)
Bears effectively arrested the uptrend over 5200, but when it came their turn to break 5100…bears just ain't crackin it!

So what's next?
The Nifty fortress is like a huge chessboard where operators decide each day, which 'pawns' they will sacrifice and which pieces they will keep. Now the real fight is over Reliance and ICICIBank, and it remains to be seen if we're going to see any real action in those counters.
In short…
The enemy hasn't made it to the Royal chambers yet. And will they? It looks unlikely. Bears will have to crack level 5000 to make any real impact. If they can't do that, bulls retain the lead and level 5200 might well be reclaimed.

Tht said, bears have sent the message loud and clear that except for a handful of counters, the rest of Nifty still bows to them, and them alone. In short, the turnaround has been confined largely to Reliance and…ah…Reliance….and…Reliance. You got the point? lol.
So all those who went running in to grab those fundamental picks are probably seeing red, and operators don't care in the least.

This is an operators market. They pumped their money into Reliance and that's where you will see all the action. Don't even try to relate the rest of Nifty with it. Who cares, if your stupid BHELs were trading around 2500 back when Reliance was at 2700 a few months ago.
Who cares that your State Bank shares were at 2200 when Reliance was at this same level.
Get over it!

Bottomline?
Bull operators are going after their goal of triggering a massive short-covering in Reliance.
Bear operators are devouring everything else. When that short-covering finally happens and bulls dump all their shares on a bunch of trapped bears….Reliance will be dropped like a hot brick and some other stock will become the Nifty driver.

In the medium term, I hope that sanity will return to our markets and Reliance will come to settle around 2200, tho Nifty is likely to trade at better levels.

In the meantime…

Don't think big. Don't think small.
Think twisted 😉

Happy Trading! 🙂

 
UMA
 

 

Rajandran R Founder of Marketcalls and Co-Founder Algomojo. Full-Time Derivative Trader. Expert in Designing Trading Systems (Amibroker, Ninjatrader, Metatrader, Python, Pinescript). Trading the markets since 2006. Mentoring Traders on Trading System Designing, Market Profile, Orderflow and Trade Automation.

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