It is a fierce rally since the start of the June month in ES-Mini Futures (US Market). However, if you look from the Big picture perspective ES-Mini made an All time high at 2961.25 and it is a failed breakout from the previous All-time high levels 2947.
The Short term downtrend from 1st May 2019 extended till 3rd June 2019 which is approximately 33days old and the correction was 232.5 points in ES-Mini (i.e from 2961.5 to 2728.75) Downtrend in May is counter-attacked by a sharp upswing towards 2900+ levels.
May Month ES-Mini – Profile Charts
ES Mini Topped Out with a Back to Back Secure High Pattern in Market Profile on the day of FED Announcement which is followed by US-China Tariff war started on 5th May 2019 (Sunday).
On 5th May, US President Donald Trump sent shock waves through global markets on Sunday when he announced that from Friday, the 10 percent that had been levied on US$200 billion of goods made in China would increase to 25 percent.
Now the profile distribution during June month is quite interesting. The sharp rally which started from 3rd of June holds a P shape profile balance on 7th June which is acting currently as a speed breaker (2870 levels) in slowing down the trend and the auction process and currently a sideways consolidation is taking place out there.
At the same time, one more top pattern Back to Back dual momentum auction reversal is witnessed on 13th June followed by stealth auction on 14th June indicating a potential oversold markets which high odds of taking a trend reversal turn.
Now, this setup could invalidate if price started accepting above 2900 levels during the regular market hours. However, the downside odds are vulnerable to test towards 2765 and 2735 in a very short term.
Sharp cuts are possible towards the test of current month low which is a momentum month low so far. But very rarely few months are momentum months.
Do you think this is a dead cat bounce?