Natural gas (26.12.2013) respected our analysis & moved to targets as per last report. However natural gas move to higher level after that but many important hurdles kept as away for time being.
Now natural gas is trading around $4.460 & as we can see on charts the continue trading above $4.418 is indicating that the rally isn’t complete & we may witness further bullishness on coming trading session. However we also witness a possibility of negative divergence on RSI but it still has space for upside. Consolidation before the contract expiry providing more opportunity for buyers.
On fundamental side the 5 year average inventory for last week of the year is 3346 bcf while current inventory before last week withdrawal is 3248. The 5 year average price is $4.142 while current price is $4.460. Winter weather may continue in US major gas consuming area till starting of 2014.
Based on above studies, we will prefer to stay on bull side & looking for quick upside targets around $4.785 & then may be $5. However thin volume may generate volatility before moving up. The 5 year average price $4.142 will act as our SL on day closing basis.