Lets have a look about the Big Picture behind Nifty. Charts shown here is the
10 Year – Yearly Chart for Nifty with 5 Simple EMA Indicator. Applying our 5 EMA
rule (Buy – if cadle closes above 5 EMA and Sell if candle closes below 5 EMA).
We got a buy signal in Nifty during 2003 around 2000 levels in nifty and a sell signal
Iam not likely to present any bearish scenario at this stage. But just to produce
my long term view on markets based on my simple 5 EMA. Presently the 2009's Yearly
resistance is near 3515 as per 5 EMA rule. So there are huge possibilites that we
may end this year i.e 31st Dec 2009 Below 5 EMA… i.e 3515. Because market gives
a sell signal during 2008 when it dips below 3800 levels during OCT 2008… ie below 5EMA.
This might be one of the reason why we are facing much resistance near 3515 levels.
Also even a raise above 3515 is subject to questioned….Will it sustain above 3515 levels. Another Major resistance upside lies near 3775 which is nothing but the 200 Week Simple Moving Average. So 3515 and 3775 are the key levels for the market
for the year 2009. Its my self belief that 3775 wont be crossed until the end of the
year 2009 and even sustainability above 3515 will be Possible only for a shorter duration of days. And more possibly 31'st Dec 2009 should likely to close below 3515 levels.
Still 8 more months remaining for the Year 2009 to End and I prefer to be a short term investor in Heavily Beaten down Stocks for the year of 2009 rather than investing in fat stocks those trades above 200 day MA and 200 Week MA for best short term returns.
[b]Disclaimer : All my decision's are based on Simple 5 EMA rule as explained above[/b]