March 2025 has kicked off with heightened volatility, driven by global trade tensions, macroeconomic shifts, and technical exhaustion signals in major indices. With the Nifty 50, S&P 500, and global markets reacting sharply to geopolitical and economic developments, traders must focus on Market Profile levels, extreme indications, and market dynamics to navigate the heightened uncertainty.
In this blog, we will break down:
- Market Profile insights for Nifty 50 and global indices
- Key auction levels and POC shifts
- Trading strategies based on Market Profile signals
- Macro and geopolitical risks impacting market structure
Selling Dominance & Market Structure
- Short-term selling pressure started on February 24th, 2025, with an aggressive sell-off accelerating on February 27th.
- A rejection from February 26th PPOC (Prominent Point of Control) acted as a resistance zone, leading to further downside.
- R-PPOC formation (Reversed Prominent POC) indicates a strong rejection of higher prices, reinforcing bearish sentiment.
Extreme Indication Signals & Short-Term Reversal Possibilities
- Extreme Indications on both Daily (-7.55) and Hourly (-9.24) timeframes suggest a risk of fresh positional shorting.
- These exhaustion signals often precede short-covering rallies or sideways consolidations before the next major move.
- If sellers fail to step in at these oversold levels, one could expect a bounce if value starts building higher.
Trading Implication:
- If Nifty sustains above 22,100, we could see a short-covering rally toward 22,400–22,500.
- Failure to hold 21800 – 21,900 could trigger further downside, targeting more bearish levels for March series.
Low VIX Despite FII Selling – DII Absorption at Play?
Despite heavy Foreign Institutional Investor (FII) selling, India VIX remains relatively low, signaling that market participants are not aggressively pricing in volatility. This could indicate that Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) are stepping in to absorb the selling pressure, preventing panic moves. DIIs, including mutual funds and insurance companies, have been consistently buying on dips, countering FII outflows and keeping the market structure stable
US & Asian Markets Under Tariff Pressure
March 2025 is marked by heightened geopolitical and macroeconomic risks, primarily driven by Trump’s aggressive tariff policies on Mexico, Canada, and China. These tariffs are disrupting global supply chains, pressuring inflation, and increasing recession fears. The Federal Reserve may delay rate cuts, as higher import costs could sustain inflation. Meanwhile, China’s retaliatory measures targeting US agriculture and tech sectors add to market uncertainty. A stronger US dollar is weighing on emerging markets, causing capital outflows from Asian equities. With global trade tensions escalating, investors must brace for continued volatility and shifting market structures.
The S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq saw significant declines, with tariff-sensitive sectors like autos, semiconductors, and industrials hit hardest.
US Stock Market Sell-off:
- Dow Jones: -1.48%
- S&P 500: -1.76%
- Nasdaq: -2.64%
Conclusion
- The tariff war escalation is shaking up global markets.
- Short-term: Volatility & selling pressure dominate.
- Medium-term: Watch for signs of exhaustion, particularly around extreme indications.
This is a trader’s market right now—stay nimble, focus on key levels, and manage risk carefully!
