MCX Crude taken short term support at 3119 and bounced back on the hourly charts. Potential medium term supports around 2900. Nymex crude futures is also currently trading around the psychological reference 50 USD/Barrel. However on the daily timeframe price rejection around 200 MA 3316 and started pulling back down and the daily sentiment holds down.
Global commodities are taking the blood bath as Bloomberg #Commodity Index is down 8%(approx) since the mid of February 2017. So Metals and metals related stocks are taking a hit in the past few trading weeks. Copper Price often signals the strength of the global economy. Copper prices are currently trading around the pschological reference level 2.5$ and all momentum indicators are currently in a negative mode across daily, weekly and monthly timeframe.
Nymex Crude is showing a short term consolidation on the hourly timeframe with divergence witnessed when fisher transform is applied over the chart. Daily Trade Sentiment turned positive which could bring imminent short term up move.
In the last outlook we seen MCX Crudeoil – balancing behavior on the weekly and daily timeframe. Since then we had spent more time withing the balance. And now the is a significant change from the sentimental point of view as both daily and weekly sentiment turning down which brings us bias towards the breakdown from the bottom of the balance – 3500 zone.
On the Monthly Charts MCX CrudeOil Maintains uptrend and also broken out of the consolidation zone 3475 zone and sustained above the reference zone. However lower timeframes indicates a tired and weaker market.
MCX Goldon the monthly charts consolidating for the last for the 5 years in the band of Rs25000 – 32200 per 10 gram. Sentiment on the monthly charts suggests the long term sentiment is reversed to the negative bias and posied towards the lower end of the balance Rs25000 w- longer term trend which is expected to happen around 3-4 months duration.
In the closing days of November, the Daily Sentiment Index registered a ten-day average of just 9.1% gold bulls. That was only the third time in the sentiment gauge’s 30-year history that such a low bullish reading was recorded.
Last week’s shocking spike in crude oil prices is +12% and counting, the biggest one-week gain in five years. Media stories blame one culprit: the November 30 OPEC agreement to cut production.
Bullish sentiment among silver traders recently fell to 8 percent, the lowest reading since mid-2015. So, sentiment is in the right place for the next big leg in the price pattern.
MCX Gold surges to a high of Rs31326/Kg when Mr.Donald trump was leading the election results on 9th Nov 2016. Around 10.40p.m gold topped out and from there post the election announcement MCX Gold dropped to a low of Rs29269/Kg on last Friday (Nov 11,2016). The dollar rose to its strongest level since February. Bonds continued to get pounded, with losses exceeding $1 trillion this week.
It is almost a “V”-Shaped recovery from the May 2015 crash in Zinc Futures. Post the mid of July 2016, momentum in zinc had came down drastically. When the momentum declines buyers started getting frustrated with their long holdings. And when market conditions are not favoring those buyers naturally they turn to sell their contracts and there by triggering shorter term selling.
Is the long term trend in Nickel Started? To answer this question we can start with monthly nickel charts with predict cycle indicator. You can notice from the MCX nickel monthly charts that Predict cycle had turned positive – we are possibly in the long term uptrend. After 8 months of consolidation on the larger timeframe Nickel is currently trading above 8 month high.