Last two days Nifty futures made a down swing of approximately 200 points (from 10530 to 10330 levels). Interestingly on the weekly charts nifty had made a outside bar with a low confidence breakout. It looked below the previous week low 10350 and failed to accept below previous week low on EOD basis.
Nifty found short term resistance around 10500 zone and currently in the phase of short term correction. Trading sentiment and profile sentiment both turned to negative mode which brings more downside pressure for nifty in the very near term. On the downside 10350 and 10248 are the two major focus levels to watch in the very short term.
Nifty done one more All time high in the start of the November series. Should have raised the eyebrows of every equity derivative trader. From the Daily trading sentiment perspective Nifty is holding the positive sentiment for the last 6 trading sessions. Trading Excitement is at the extreme for this series.
Nifty is trading around All time high. October Futures is more of one-sided movement with an approximate swing of 500+ points swing. The trading sentiment is holding positive across the timeframes (Daily, Weekly, Monthly). No weakness yet from the market internals perspective. Trading Positional Shorts could be still not a profitable one unless you understand the inventory conditions of the market participants.
Nifty Future is trading very close to the all time high with mixed trading sentiments from market profile and indicator which could eventually lead into a sideways to uptrend phenomenon. Market internals are increasingly holding positive and put writers are aggressively killing the option premium at 9800PE, 9900PE, 10000PE, 10100PE. Diwali’s emotional trading is overcome by the Monday’s price action.
Bank Nifty Futures is under performing Nifty futures since the start of the Oct 2017 Series. Bank Nifty made a month-to-date gain of 1.3% vs Nifty Futures month-to-date gain of 4.6%. Bank Nifty indicator Sentiment and profile sentiment turned negative recently.
Nifty Futures is trading in the new territory and also hits all time high on friday trading session. This time weekly sentiment turned positive and interestingly market internals are holding positive and put writers are aggressively killing the option premium at 9800PE, 9900PE, 10000PE, 10100PE. None of the call writers are aggressive for this series despite the global events like North Korea Threat, China downgrade and local events like surgical strike, Fitch downgrading India’s growth forecast to 6.9 per cent.
Nifty Futures had done a inventory adjustment in a steep slope on last Wednesday trading. It is more of short sellers day where an emotional short selling is witnessed in the second half of the session. Indicator sentiment remains positive for the 7th day. Nifty Futures on the Daily chart is trading above 50 day moving average 9960.
Nifty managed to find support around 9700 zone and indicator sentiment turned positive on last friday evening. However profile sentiment manages to be negative as long as the price stays below 9814. Price accepting above 9814 could bring short some bullish bias back into the markets until then a sideways action between 9700-9814 is expected.
Here at Ellliotwave International we studied investors behavior for nearly 40 years. A huge benefit of all that study is being able to study today’s stock market to the major market market tops and bottoms of the past. This Mutual Fund Vs Money Market Ratio ( 30 years of historical chart) shows extreme sentimental indications which shows how riskier the investments in today’s stock market compared to 2000 and 2008.
Nifty futures made a inside bar on the weekly timeframe despite continuing global tensions, global market corrections, FII selling in index futures and cash segments and local events like Mr.Vishal sikka resignation from INFY which is a strong indication that sellers are not aggressive yet compare to the aggressive buyers.
Nifty Futures on the weekly timeframe had lost a weight of -3.7%. Trading sentiment continues to be down across all the timeframes. Markets are continuously falling on global tensions as long term trading activity is greatly missing from the markets. Pullbacks are possible if the global tension eases out. Nifty futures move above 9750-9763 band in the very short term could bring some momentum on the upper side.