COT refers to Commitment of Traders. The Commitments of Traders (CoT) is a weekly report released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The CoT report outlines how different types of traders are positioned in the futures markets. COT reports are delayed reports(release on every friday) about the participant wise open interest data and provide a breakdown of each Tuesday’s open interest for markets.
On fundamental side, mild weather in US expected to continue for coming 2 weeks & will put more pressure on prices. On other hand current inventory level of natural gas is 3432 bcf which is down by 400bcf compare to 5 year average. Inventory forecast for this week is -51 while 5 year average withdrawal is -17. These inventory level might help natural gas prices to hold above current year low.
Now natural gas is trading around $4.49 & as we can see on charts, natural gas continue trading in a minor downside channel & touching the top line of descending channel which was able to stop the rally 2 times earlier. At the same time this area is just below 38.2% february correction level as well as indicators are turning negative.
Now natural gas is trading around $4.460 & as we can see on charts the continue trading above $4.418 is indicating that the rally isn’t complete & we may witness further bullishness on coming trading session. However we also witness a possibility of negative divergence on RSI but it still has space for upside. Consolidation before the contract expiry providing more opportunity for buyers.
Now natural gas is trading around $3.464 & as we can see on charts , natural gas was unable to provide a close below parallel support area around $3.398 & the bounce we witness yesterday may produce a double bottom pattern for coming days. At the same time the candlestick formation is quite bullish & hinting for a bounce ahead.