USDINR Futures hits All-time high in NSE Bourses. Rapid Fall in Commodities prices & ongoing coronavirus pandemic tensions and rising demand for the dollar index, fear of growth slowdown put the emerging markets currencies at risk.
USDINR is on the verge of testing the All-time high. Momentum had geared up in the last couple of trading sessions. Previous All-time high 74.6875 is done long back around Nov 11, 2018. The current momentum is thus far driven by two factors
USDINR is trading in a broader level sideways mode in the band of 70.3-72 for the last 3 trading months. November month starts with a trending mode with increasing trend strength on the higher timeframe. Weekly ADX got into the incremental mode with value surpassing above 15.72 levels indicating a possible medium-term uptrend.
Bullish Momentum in USDINR Kickstarted during the start of June 2018 and most likely to extend till the Sep 2018. USDINR also tested all-time high 70.89 on 14th Aug 2018. What is really missing compared to the majority of the EM Currencies is that Extreme bullish momentum seems to be missing thus far.
The Turkish lira fell to an all-time low against the dollar. The lira tumbled 15.63% against the dollar on friday to 6.4323 from the previous close. The currency — which has lost more than 40 per cent of its value this year — was 18.5 per cent lower at one point on Friday. Turkish stock market index – Borsa Istanbul 100 ended -2.23% at Friday close. Year to Date stock market index is down by 17.68%.
Just like any other Emerging Market currency – USDINR also depreciated since the start of the year 2018. The recent Debt crisis in Argentina, Turkey and Brazil. The unexpected lift in dollar US FED rates made dollar attractive and Emerging markets are witnessing a big EM assets outflow as global investors started pulling their money from Emerging Markets.
Both NSE & BSE received approval from SEBI to launch Cross Currency Derivative Pairs EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY. The trade timing in pair currency contracts would be available between 9:00 AM and 7:30 PM.
USDJPY currently trading around 108.71 with relatively thin volumes as Japanese markets are in holiday and despite rising US Markets and 10-year note yield now at 2.90%, surpassing last week’s 4-year high. trading higher USDJPY pair is little changed from Fridays closing.
USDJPY tested April 2017 low on fears that Pyongyang (North Korea) would launch another missile test over the weekend, which had added to last Friday’s USDJPY selloff. Last friday Yen had made a low around 107.32 followed by a strong pullback on monday leaving a strong tail on the bar chart again. Its the second time the pattern is repeating on north korea fears with a short term trade setup.
EURUSD on the monthly timeframe trading in a larger balance between 1.0482 and 1.145 (rough estimate) since the start of 2015. Its been more than 2 years and EURUSD is trading is the tighter range on the larger timeframe. Now EURUSD is trading at the edge of the top balance. In the last view on EURUSD we viewed 1.0651 as a critical support zone for the uptrend to continue
EURUSD on the monthly timeframe trading in a larger balance between 1.0482 and 1.145 (rough estimate) since the start of 2015. Its been more than 2 years and EURUSD is trading is the tighter range on the larger timeframe. On the lower side 1.048 offers a longterm support which is also the bottom of the balance. Highly compressed trading activity is seen in the last 4-5 trading months
The EUR/USD consolidated its recent gains following a surge in the exchange rate in the wake of the ECB meeting. While the central bank mostly stuck to the script, keeping rates unchanged and QE in place, it did strike a more neutral stance but this will come slowly over a long period of time. Draghi, shrugged off the recent increases in inflation as transitory, and believes there is a need for the current stimulus to remain intact.