Just like any other Emerging Market currency – USDINR also depreciated since the start of the year 2018. The recent Debt crisis in Argentina, Turkey and Brazil. The unexpected lift in dollar US FED rates made dollar attractive and Emerging markets are witnessing a big EM assets outflow as global investors started pulling their money from Emerging Markets.
Both NSE & BSE received approval from SEBI to launch Cross Currency Derivative Pairs EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY. The trade timing in pair currency contracts would be available between 9:00 AM and 7:30 PM.
USDJPY currently trading around 108.71 with relatively thin volumes as Japanese markets are in holiday and despite rising US Markets and 10-year note yield now at 2.90%, surpassing last week’s 4-year high. trading higher USDJPY pair is little changed from Fridays closing.
USDJPY tested April 2017 low on fears that Pyongyang (North Korea) would launch another missile test over the weekend, which had added to last Friday’s USDJPY selloff. Last friday Yen had made a low around 107.32 followed by a strong pullback on monday leaving a strong tail on the bar chart again. Its the second time the pattern is repeating on north korea fears with a short term trade setup.
EURUSD on the monthly timeframe trading in a larger balance between 1.0482 and 1.145 (rough estimate) since the start of 2015. Its been more than 2 years and EURUSD is trading is the tighter range on the larger timeframe. Now EURUSD is trading at the edge of the top balance. In the last view on EURUSD we viewed 1.0651 as a critical support zone for the uptrend to continue
EURUSD on the monthly timeframe trading in a larger balance between 1.0482 and 1.145 (rough estimate) since the start of 2015. Its been more than 2 years and EURUSD is trading is the tighter range on the larger timeframe. On the lower side 1.048 offers a longterm support which is also the bottom of the balance. Highly compressed trading activity is seen in the last 4-5 trading months
The EUR/USD consolidated its recent gains following a surge in the exchange rate in the wake of the ECB meeting. While the central bank mostly stuck to the script, keeping rates unchanged and QE in place, it did strike a more neutral stance but this will come slowly over a long period of time. Draghi, shrugged off the recent increases in inflation as transitory, and believes there is a need for the current stimulus to remain intact.
EURUSD is consolidating on the monthly and Weekly timeframe and negative sentiment prevail there. However on the Daily charts trading sentiment turned positive. Since the start of FEB 2017 EURUSD is in declining mode and so far twice EURUSD rallied from the intermediate lows formed around 1.0500 levels. It could act as a potential support zone in the upcoming day.
Since 2014, the Dollar has increased by 25% against a basket of major currencies. After President Trump’s election, the value of the greenback has risen by about 3%, but his recent comment questioning the wisdom of maintaining a “strong Dollar” seems to have put pressure on the USD, which so far has been in the red in 2017.
Pound is trading around 1.2494 and currently monthly sentimental RSI turned positive and likely to continue positive in the long term. It had almost taken 7 months for the sentiment to change positive since BR Exit. The Transition of sentiment from Red to Yellow color indicates positive trend reversal and the trend change is likely to be long term.
Though Governments demonetization is a welcoming move to remove black money, fake currency, corruption and terror financing from the system, it is a bit early to make any accurate predictions on the full impact of government’s attempt to demonetize Rs.500 and Rs.1,000 currency notes . Demonetization is good for the medium to long term economy, however it will adversely impact India’s economic growth in the short run.
Some Elliott wave forex traders do watch the news — but for different reasons By Elliott Wave International Last Friday, EURUSD rallied strongly. Said Reuters: “The U.S. dollar tumbled against a basket of major currencies…on U.S. political uncertainty after the FBI said it would review more emails related to Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton’s private […]