A lot many news factors had come in the last 45 days starting right from Exit Poll Announcements, Lok Sabha Election Results, RBI Rate Cut, India Tariff Announcement, July Union Budget session. Despite all these macro events Nifty Futures is still trading in a broader 420 point range between 11650 – 12070 levels.
This sideways consolidation could have been made many traders frustrated. Lack of serious money driving this market is the primary reason where only short term traders are fighting at the extremes.
Mid Point of the consolidation Band Comes around 11856 levels. As long as price manages to trade below 11856 trading sentiment remains on the negative side.
Recent days Intraday volatility dropped and 10 day ATR comes around 120 levels.
Island reversal gap in Nifty spot is still open between 11479-11484 band. Fridays note ended with weakness might spillover into the Monday session as well. Current support comes around 11750 levels.
Nifty Options – Open Interest
Call writers are active around 12000 levels and put writers are currently active around 11500, 11600 & 11700 levels. That brings an equilibrium point for the put writers around 11750 levels as breakeven points for the put writers and straddlers. Price breaking 11750 on the downside could trigger an unwinding of longs in Nifty as well as from put writers.
From a larger trend perspective, short term trend turned negative on Friday and medium term, long term trend is going in a sideways mode.
For very short-term sentiment to turn positive acceptance above 11856 is much required to go towards 12000 and 12070 levels. Failure to accept above 11856 one can aim towards the closure of the Island reversal gap towards 11447 on the downside.
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