It is always good to start a week with top down analysis to gauge the overall market participation mood. On the monthly bar chart (Long Term Auction) Nifty Futures is balancing. Last week attempt to breakout of previous month low 10436.5 failed. On the weekly bar (Intermediate Term Auction) Nifty futures is clearly down and also trading below the major psychological reference 10500 levels. On the Daily bar (Short term Auction) Nifty futures is trending down with in a volatile environment.
Nifty Futures – Monthly Bar
So far the current auction is trending down with gap downs followed by intraday recovery in most of the gap down days during the last week. India VIX – 19.23 is still underperforming the global benchmark volatility index (VIX) – 29.06. Despite higher open interest in 10500PE on last Friday nifty spot managed to close below the psychological reference 10500 which could potentially act like a short term resistance zone.
Global Market Sentiment
Though on Last friday US Markets managed to bounce out of the intraday losses most of the world indices had a deep weekly cuts. Major loosers for this week are Shanghai $SSEC down 9.6% and $HSI HangSeng down 9.5% for this week.
Nifty Futures Market Profile Key Reference Levels
1)Low Made on 6th Feb – 10300 is a poor low, unsecure low and psychological reference as well. Current swing low is a questionable one.
2)Poor Structure formation on last Friday.
3)Prominent POC formation at 10675 on 5th Feb 2018
4)Weekly Gap at 10721
5)Spike Base at 10814
Last Friday Nifty futures managed to close lower (-0.8%). Thought post the gap down price started scaling higher. Interestingly the day was highly volatile and emotional left with lot many anomalies. Value formed lower relative to Thursday. Price rejected the previous month low 10436.5 for the second time and manages to close above that. For the current week both previous week reference 10300 and previous month reference 10436.5 is likely to act as a critical reference as the intermediate auction is down.
Price holding back above 10480 could bring a sideways volatile zone between 10480-10750 zone. However price sustaining below 10436.5 could bring a retest towards 10300 and the visual reference 10100 levels.