S&P 500 index is at the extreme positive sentiment getting into a sort of parabolic move. Since March 2009 $SPX moved from the low of 666 to 3329 levels. That is 5 times of returns since the major swing lows of 2009.
After the 2008 crisis, S&P 500 made bigger annual returns during the year 2009 (23.5%), 2013(29.6%), 2019(28.9%)
Shiller PE – a measurement of market valuation is currently at 31.7 levels which is a clear indication of fundamentally overvalued markets.
Investors’ sentiment in the US markets is at an extreme peak. Quarterly charts depict clearly the investor’s mood at extremely high for the last two quarters resulting in a vertical uptrend which is clear information that markets are full of uninformed investors.
As of today, the Total Market Index is at $ 33828.6 billion, which is about 157% of the last reported US GDP.
Warren Buffet Indicator’s market cap to GDP ratio is currently at 157% which is a clear indication that markets are overvalued. If the indicator gets too top-heavy, with the total market value of stocks significantly exceeding the productivity of the underlying companies, Buffett would say stock prices are due for a correction.
S&P 500 – Quarterly Charts
Since October 11, when the Fed announced it would begin buying Treasury bills, the S&P 500 has risen about 12 percent.
So What could Possibly go wrong?