Geopolitical tensions escalated following the drone attack on two Saudi Aramco installations Abqaiq and Khurais. Yemen’s Iran-allied Houthi rebels have claimed responsibility warning Saudi Arabia that their targets “will keep expanding”.
Both Short term (Daily Sentiment) and Very Short term sentiment (Hourly) in MCX Crude holds down. Sideways action is expected with a possible test towards 3170. However any sustainable move coming above 3213 indicates resume of short term trend up that is more likely to keep the trend strong in the very short term.
MCX Crude taken short term support at 3119 and bounced back on the hourly charts. Potential medium term supports around 2900. Nymex crude futures is also currently trading around the psychological reference 50 USD/Barrel. However on the daily timeframe price rejection around 200 MA 3316 and started pulling back down and the daily sentiment holds down.
On the Monthly Charts MCX CrudeOil Maintains uptrend and also broken out of the consolidation zone 3475 zone and sustained above the reference zone. However lower timeframes indicates a tired and weaker market.
MCX Crude tested the bottom 11th Feb 2016 Rs1805/Barrel since then it is in tremendous uptrend and currently trading around Oct 2015 high where crude is expected to consolidate with minor sell-off. One cannot expect any immediate uptrend in the coming days. Sell off in global commodities like Gold and Silver will weigh on other commodities as well.
On monday international crude breaks more than 5% and settled around $50 level which is the lowest settlement since April 2009. Crude tumbled heavily after data showed Russian oil output at post-Soviet era highs averaging 10.58 million barrels per day and Iraq plans to expand crude exports to 3.3 million barrels a day this month.
price closed the week on a positive note in the last trading session of the week. After making the low of 4691 crude bounced back strongly on 5th November and closed the week at 4861. Crude oil price has strong support area of 4840-4830 if on Monday trading session crude oil price manage to sustain this level of 4830 and above expect a sharp rally towards 4951 and there after to 5100.
Now crude is trading around $81.30 & we can see on charts crude unable to trade able broken support area of $84.20 while a formed a very bearish candlestick pattern just below the resistance. The minor ascending channel broken by crude suggest that consolidation done here & we may witness more downfall in coming trading sessions. Technically crude may find support at $79-77 area but before the hidden negative divergence (LH/HH) will do its job.
Checkout the three longterm bearish MCX commodity(MCX Gold,MCX Copper,MCX Crude) Weekly charts which is in currently in long term sell mode as per Intratrend weekly charts.
Here is a very simple yet a powerful hourly strategy in MCX crude. I would like to call it as 10EMA Reverse strategy. i.e buy signal will generate in case of hourly candle closes below 10EMA and sell signal will generate if the candle closes above 10EMA.
Intratrend Positional Trend Update for Nifty, Bank Nifty, MCX Gold, MCX Silver, MCX Crude and MCX USDINR futures.
Now MCX Crude is trading around 5108 ($93.66) & as we can see on chart in last fortnight crude traded on both side & made a top of $97.43 & made a low of $91.93. However it was difficult to identify the 1st directional move & thus we stayed neutral.