International Gold is in consolidation mode since 16th of July 2018. Currently trading in a very tight band largely trading within a $10 range over the past week, with the price respecting the $1206 and $1216 levels. Broader range compression ranges from 1205 – 1230 levels in the last one month. The compression in the gold is getting so long on the 4 hourly charts which mostly ends up in a larger price action move.
Gold price action remains muted despite the stock market crashing, global events like trade war, syrian attack. Its been trading in a very compressed range 1300-1350 range since the start of year 2018. Last 4 trading sessions price is making higher high and higher lows which shows the confidence of the players. Price maintains above 200MA since 2018.
Since last two years Gold is currently trading in a very broader range 200 point range (1150-1350 on weekly timeframe). Trading sentiment for this week turned to positive which indicates bullish medium term bias. On the Daily Scale Gold is trading in a very tight range between 1265-1285 range and sentiment turned positive on the daily scale as well.
Gold had done a short term trend reversal from the recent swing low of 1251. Trading Sentiment holds positive on both daily and weekly timeframe. Current surge towards 1280 reference brings a possibility of test towards the 1295-1300 band where gold got resisted twice in the same reference.
In the closing days of November, the Daily Sentiment Index registered a ten-day average of just 9.1% gold bulls. That was only the third time in the sentiment gauge’s 30-year history that such a low bullish reading was recorded.
Just thought of posting quick update on Gold Medium term trend. Price structure of the Gold Weekly Charts are moving in a sideways bearish trend since mid of 2013. Longer term bearish momentum got faded out completely. In financial markets such fading moment mostly happens near the end of the trend(bearish/bullish). And the weekly outside bar on the Gold charts due to Fridays fierce price moment indicates bullishness likely to resume in Gold.
After much waiting and anticipation, finance ministry has recently released a discussion paper, which is mainly proposed on the available gold monetization scheme. Moreover, finance minister has even promised to get acquainted with the available budget speech. Estimating the gold holding among so of the Indian households is now getting at none other than 20,000 tons, and the finance minister is likely to introduce a perfect gold monetization scheme.
Now gold is trading around $1211 & as we can see on charts gold following a upward trade line & reaching to the major resistance zone from $1224-1245. While looking at the big time frame gold still looking bearish & this move seems like 3 corrective move after completing the 5 wave downside elliott wave pattern.
Now gold showing recovery from previous bottom level & also broken from a shot term descending channel as shown in picture. However this breakout is not supported well in terms of volume & that force us to stay concern about this upside rally. The strength of this rally will be tested on $1205 once.
Recently, Indian govt announced a particular scheme in their budget notes which took a lot of attention, especially gold merchants and speculators. With gold prices tumbling since last couple of years, the new scheme-if it works, would not only increase the supply of precious metal at domestic level, in-turn cuts our international gold imports which further depresses the price at global scale.
Gold (01.12.2014) reverse from $1207 mark which we mention as first resistance for bulls. However fall from mention level should taken as correction or profit booking but swiss gold referendum added more fuel & created panic selling.
Here is a simple example from Mr Jayant Manglik (Religare Online) explaining how the impact of Change in Comex Gold Price impact MCX Gold (if USDINR rates are assumed to be constant. He also discuss how USDINR movement affects MCX Gold rates keeping Comex Gold rates as constant. Useful video must for the begineers to understand the dynamics of the commodity market.