Gold price action remains muted despite the stock market crashing, global events like trade war, syrian attack. Its been trading in a very compressed range 1300-1350 range since the start of year 2018. Last 4 trading sessions price is making higher high and higher lows which shows the confidence of the players. Price maintains above 200MA since 2018.
There’s a widespread assumption that supply and demand drive oil prices. Almost all economists base their oil forecasts entirely on this premise, and so do many speculators.
If the oil industry ramps up production and increases supply, economists expect a drop in oil prices. If production decreases, or some other factors hint at supply constraints, they anticipate a rise in oil’s price.
Since last two years Gold is currently trading in a very broader range 200 point range (1150-1350 on weekly timeframe). Trading sentiment for this week turned to positive which indicates bullish medium term bias. On the Daily Scale Gold is trading in a very tight range between 1265-1285 range and sentiment turned positive on the daily scale as well.
Crude Oil is trading in a very tight range. Very short term trading sentiment turns positive and trend line resistance comes around 49.2 reference where more crowded stops are visible in that reference point. And few more stops are visible around 50.2 zone.
Gold had done a short term trend reversal from the recent swing low of 1251. Trading Sentiment holds positive on both daily and weekly timeframe. Current surge towards 1280 reference brings a possibility of test towards the 1295-1300 band where gold got resisted twice in the same reference.
MCX Copper June futures on last Friday slipped down below 200MA on both daily(366.8) and hourly(366.7) charts. However around the market close, managed to close above 200MA on both the timeframes it is a short term bullish setup as responsive buyers shown support on Friday low around the 361 mark.
Both Short term (Daily Sentiment) and Very Short term sentiment (Hourly) in MCX Crude holds down. Sideways action is expected with a possible test towards 3170. However any sustainable move coming above 3213 indicates resume of short term trend up that is more likely to keep the trend strong in the very short term.
Global commodities are taking the blood bath as Bloomberg #Commodity Index is down 8%(approx) since the mid of February 2017. So Metals and metals related stocks are taking a hit in the past few trading weeks. Copper Price often signals the strength of the global economy. Copper prices are currently trading around the pschological reference level 2.5$ and all momentum indicators are currently in a negative mode across daily, weekly and monthly timeframe.
Nymex Crude is showing a short term consolidation on the hourly timeframe with divergence witnessed when fisher transform is applied over the chart. Daily Trade Sentiment turned positive which could bring imminent short term up move.
In the last outlook we seen MCX Crudeoil – balancing behavior on the weekly and daily timeframe. Since then we had spent more time withing the balance. And now the is a significant change from the sentimental point of view as both daily and weekly sentiment turning down which brings us bias towards the breakdown from the bottom of the balance – 3500 zone.
On the Monthly Charts MCX CrudeOil Maintains uptrend and also broken out of the consolidation zone 3475 zone and sustained above the reference zone. However lower timeframes indicates a tired and weaker market.
According to the news-focused analysts, commodities as a whole had resolved to quit their bear habits in 2011, and soar: “The bull market in commodities is likely to continue for some time.” (Dec. 8, 2010, Wall Street Journal). “The crash of 2008 in commodities was a mere blip… The rally in prices shows no signs of slowing.” (March 9, 2010, National Post)