A short and truncated week, end of fiscal year coming in and only three more days left for the expiry. Global markets closed on a negative note as trade war sentiment going on. Most of the world indices closed negative for this week.
Nifty is trading on the verge of higher timeframe stop trigger zone. Contra players can argue that one can bet on longs with stop loss as current or previous swing low at 10055-10075 levels. But for most of the long position 10055-10075 zone could be a reference point for exit/reversal point. Last 4 days of trading session nifty is balancing in a broader 10075-10250 range.
Nifty Futures opened gap up on Wednesday trading session removed some of the weaker hand sellers in the first hour of trading session. Rest of the day – intraday buyers piled in at very mechanical and visual references. Interestingly the dip buyers came throughout the day (mostly weaker hand buyers) with value forming higher relative to the Tuesdays trading session.
Short term sellers who showed their aggressiveness failed to show the continuation on Tuesdays trading session. Price opened gap down on global market sentiments however follow thro sell-off was largely missing in the markets and the day eventually turned out to be ORR day and price traded in a low confidence environment through out the day.
Nifty Futures today tested the visual destination level 10120. If price is not able to withstand above 10120 in the very short term one could expect a liquidity crisis in a very short term which could bring a push down below 10000 psychological reference levels. Interestingly the next visual destination is roughly around 9696 levels.
Nifty Opened with a gap down with a open drive setup and continued the selling confidence throughout the day. Finally Fridays session ended with a triple distribution. Short term trend turned to downtrend only the higher timeframes Monthly and Weekly are so far balancing. Interestingly Nifty is out of the short term balance on downside and trading very close to the 200MA on Daily timeframe.
On Wednesdays closing if you would have thought that this market has to go up and on Thursdays closing if you would have thought Nifty Futures have to go down, then welcome to the trading world. Probably you are not the only one thinking, probably thousands of other traders also thinking the same way.
Tuesdays trading is quite interesting. First 90 minutes of trading price started elongating higher with a fair odds of value forming higher and mid of the trading session we got inventory adjustment as the inventory gets long to too long. Last two days of momentum trading activity got halted with inventory adjustment.
Nifty Futures on Monday Trading session opened with a gap up. Post that price entered the previous day range and formed a open test drive day. Buyers confidence maintained throughout the day. Day turns out to be a normal various day as the price elongation happens in the second half of trading session. Point of control not migrated however price migrated for the day indicating more players are now chasing the price more we are dealing with momentum traders.
Tops down analysis indicating Monthly timeframe is balancing, Weekly timeframe is trending down and Daily timeframe is trending up. Kind of mixed timeframes which indicates that markets are in the phase of total uncertainty where most of the players opinion are not aligned in the same direction. Every timeframe has their own opinion about markets at current juncture.
Trading requires process complex information into simple ideas. Thursdays trading started with price opening within the range initial high confidence was higher however it got fades sooner and starts getting into balancing mode. Interestingly markets took support exactly at the tuesdays low (prev day low) and started one timeframing during mid of the day.
Nifty futures on Tuesday session extended its losses in the second half of trading. Though the market opened gap up, soon the early morning buyers confidence faded within the first hour of trading. First half of the trading was more of a choppy trading session followed by a late sell off with spike formation.