E-mini S&P 500 future derivative contract is based on the underlying S&P 500 stock index(US Market). ES-Mini is showing an interesting structural pattern when comes to market profile with trend reversal odds. The structural pattern also reveals the significant risk in holding to the longs as the short term inventory goes long to too long.
[Currently, this tutorial access is limited to TradeZilla Workshop members only] [ihc-hide-content ihc_mb_type=”show” ihc_mb_who=”3″ ihc_mb_template=”1″ ]On Wednesday S&P 500 index Hits all-time high 2873.23. Previous all-time high is around 2872.87 during Jan 2018. However, ES Mini Futures haven’t done with all the time on Wednesday trading.
S&P 500 All-time High
ES Mini Oct 2018 Contract – Market Profile
From the profile structure, one can access that ES-Mini is one-timeframing for 5 trading sessions consecutively. There is a G3 low and it is also a weaker low at 2835 levels. It is weaker low because 16th Aug and 17th Aug lows are a just 1-tick difference. It is a G3 low because 17th Aug, 18th Aug, 19th Aug all broken its first 30min low and also making higher high for 3 consecutive sessions. Also, the structure on Wednesday trading shows a rally followed by a sell-off trigger in the second half indicating a potential inventory getting long to too long and poised for long liquidation towards 2835 levels.
Immediate Short term References
A Gap around 2860,
Double Distribution Short term support around 2850
G3 Low + Weaker Low at 2835
Gap Low around 2826.75
Based on the above structural odds expectation of ES-Mini could go anywhere between 2825-2835 on the downside. For 2835 to kick start Wednesday trading should start with a follow through to complete in t+2 trading days. Currently, the indicator sentiment is positive hence a follow-through is very much required to turn the sentiment down which increases the odds of achieving 2835 faster. If there is no downside follow through then attempt towards the weaker reference at 2835 might further get delayed.
Update1
G3 Low Holds with the positive sentiment and no follow through. However Instead Back to Back Secure High at market swing high forms with still indicator sentiment holds positive. Now needs to cross the immediate short term support around 2850 (Double Distribution reference) to confirm the short-term market top.
Update2
G3 Low Holds with the positive sentiment and no follow through. However Instead Back to Back Prominent POC with P shape profile indicating inventory is long to too long. Now needs to form value area lower to confirm short-term market top.
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