Nifty Futures went into sideways mode for the last 5 trading weeks in a high volatile fashion between 10800-11200 majority of the time and been sliding down continuously for the 9 trading weeks Since the Budget announcement.
Globally Trade war tensions & Hong Kong Protest and local Economic Slowdown, GDP crashing to 5% ( 6year low) is the theme running currently in the markets (quoted reason across media why markets are down).
Last Friday’s market activity short term buyers showed up too much of enthusiasm before the GDP announcement and FM Speech and ended the day positive on friday but with a poor structure. Price closed on friday very near to thursday high in Sep 2019 future contract.
Thursday high and Friday high are very critical price action levels to cross for a bullish trend to occur because it comes with a dual combo of G2 High + Failed Auction high. Means a breakout above Thursday + Friday high could bring a potential short-covering rally towards 11200 and 11450 levels in a very short term
However, at this point, the daily trading sentiment is holding negative due to the last two days of price action extending on the downside. Though price managed to pull back from the intraday correction on Thursday and Friday, trading sentiment still maintain down.
If Mondays opening trading sentiment maintains down and price also holding down below Friday high every possible odds that Fridays high (11077) could act as resistance zone for the next week and possibly continue the negative tone for the entire week.
What I am thinking for this week? Will the market breaks the Thursday high and Friday high with a potential short-covering rally? If yes then I would prefer to joining the trend towards 11200 and 11450 levels else the odds of long view drops for the entire week and negative tone prevails through the entire week.