Nifty is at one of those junctures where the Market Profile is telling a compelling story – but it’s not a simple one. Let me walk you through what I’m observing.

The Tug of War: Dominant Buyers vs Dominant Sellers

What’s fascinating about the current market structure is the visible battle happening between two camps. On one side, we have Dominant Sellers who’ve established their presence at the 26,400-26,500 zone (marked by a Weak High and Poor High). On the other side, Dominant Buyers stepped in aggressively around 25,800-25,850, creating what I call the AB Poor Low.

Here’s what’s notable: the buyers aren’t giving up easily. Despite multiple attempts to push prices lower, they’ve held their ground. This kind of price action tells you that there’s genuine interest at these levels — not just weak hands hoping for a bounce.

Why 26,100 Is The Pivot Everyone Should Watch

The 26,100 level has become crucial, and here’s why. We have a confluence of factors sitting right there:

The key word here is sustainability. A positive close above 26,100 and more importantly, sustained trading above this level is what would confirm the sentiment shift from negative to positive. Without that confirmation, we’re still in wait-and-watch mode.

The Dual Dilemma: Why This Isn’t A Blind Trade

Here’s something I want to be very clear about. The Poor High at 26,400-26,500 and the AB Poor Low at 25,800 represent what I call a ‘dual dilemma’ unfinished business on both sides. This is NOT a blind trade setup.

What does this mean practically? Traders need to take one step at a time to confirm the trend reversal. You don’t just buy because there’s a Poor High above or sell because there’s a Poor Low below. You wait for:

• Strong acceptance above 26,100 (not just a spike, but actual value building)
• Confirmation of Dominant Buyer activity – look for this especially in the second half of trading sessions
• Sentiment turning visibly positive you’ll see it in the way the market handles pullbacks

The unfinished business above (Poor High at 26,400-26,500) suggests these levels could potentially be revisited but only if the market first confirms its intention by holding and building value above 26,100.

The Sentiment Backdrop: Post-Fed Dynamics

The timing of this setup is interesting. Following the Fed’s 25 bps rate cut, global sentiment has shifted to risk-on. The ‘buy-on-dips’ mentality is back, FII flows are expected to stabilize, and there’s more room for RBI to maneuver if needed.

This macro backdrop provides the potential catalyst for the sentiment shift we’re watching for. But remember – the market doesn’t care about what ‘should’ happen. It only responds to actual order flow. So we watch the profiles, not the headlines.

Potential Price Levels To Watch

If sentiment turns positive and we see acceptance above 26,100, here are the levels where price could potentially revisit based on the unfinished auction structures:

What Would Change My View: The 25,800 Line In The Sand

Now here’s the part that’s equally important – knowing when you’re wrong.

CRITICAL LEVEL TO WATCH

If price breaks below 25,800 (the AB Poor Low), the entire bullish thesis needs to be reconsidered. At that point, one would have to take a fresh approach – potentially a bearish view. The 25,800 level is essentially the last hope for bulls in the December series.

This is where Dominant Buyers made their stand. If that zone fails, it tells you that the buyers weren’t as dominant as the price action initially suggested. Markets have a way of humbling us, and respecting these invalidation levels is what keeps you in the game long-term.

Putting It All Together

So where does this leave us? Here’s my observation:

We’re witnessing a genuine battle between Dominant Buyers and Dominant Sellers. The buyers are holding their ground at 25,800-25,850, while sellers have their markers at 26,400-26,500. The 26,100 zone sits right in the middle as the pivot that could decide which side wins this December series.

The Failed Auction and G2 High at 26,100 create an interesting setup – if sentiment shifts positive, short covering could accelerate the move. The post-Fed environment supports this possibility.

But – and this is crucial – this is not a blind trade. Wait for confirmation. Look for acceptance above 26,100. Watch how the market handles the second half of sessions. Let Dominant Buyers prove themselves before committing. And if 25,800 breaks, be ready to flip your bias.

MY OBSERVATION

• Current sentiment: Negative, but watching for shift to positive

• Bullish confirmation: Sustained acceptance above 26,100

• Potential revisit levels: 26,400 (Poor High), 26,500+ (Weak High), 27,000+ (Dec expiry)

• Invalidation: Break below 25,800 – reassess with fresh (possibly bearish) approach

• Key reminder: One step at a time – this is a dual dilemma, not a blind setup

As always, the market will do what it wants to do. Our job is to observe, interpret, and react — not predict. Let’s see how this unfolds.

Happy Trading!