Bank Nifty Futures Trade Preparation for 17th Apr 2017

Nothing much changed from the last top down analysis. On the Monthly charts – Trend is up and one timeframing for the last 5 trading months. Weekly timeframe – trend is up and very less rotations seen. However on the daily charts bank nifty futures is in short term balancing mode and looks structurally weak due to the nature of consecutive overlapping consolidation phases as shown below. Fridays session is a inside bar and also price trades at the very top of the short term balance witnessed on the EOD chart.

Bank Nifty Futures Daily Charts

On the fridays session Bank Nifty Futures shows moderate outperformance compared to nifty futures as bank nifty futures moderately positive (+0.1%) however nifty futures ended on a negative note with -0.4% returns

Bank Nifty Profile Charts

Key Reference Levels

1)Strong Excess at 21814
2)Prominent POC at 21762 and 21474
3)Afternoon pullback low at 21707
4)Double Mechanical Reference at 21410
5)Prev Week Low – 21355

Trading Scenarios:

1)Excess is witnessed on last thursdays trading which could possibly indicate a possible shorter term top along with 3 day balance formation (value area is overlapping for the last three trading sessions. International geopolitical tensions and uncertainty prevails with the start of this week as well. Hence the recent pullback low at 21707 remain the confidence level to monitor the change in trend. price acceptance below 21707 says the tone is getting negative possibly that could bring more confidence for the sellers to take the price towards the prev week low 21355

2)However price opening within the friday range indicates a possible rotational day which is very unlikely due to prevailing uncertainty and International tensions

3)Open above the short term balance or above excess at 21814 and accelerate. Thing could possibly indicate a possible high confidence market and will further brings higher price activity.

4)Open above the short term balance and get back into the short term balance indicates a possible weakness which indicates a retest towards the other side of the balance 21355 remains the destination trade.