Nifty Futures inventory went long to too long on last Friday. At the Monday open, trading confidence is initially low. Trading confidence is low even after the initial – 2 day breakout with a partial gap fill. However during mid of the day,, one timeframing against the Initial Balance direction is where exactly high confidence sellers started taking control and pressed the price towards the Prominent POC of control 10940 levels.
Here is one of my Signature trades using market profile and how one can look through the trade setup for a potential short covering rally especially when we are dealing with negative global emotions . On Wednesdays trading most of the Asian Markets are down due to the trade war tensions and the previous day US Markets slides to negative. The most interesting part was 4th July US markets are closed for Independence day.
How do we understand that smart money is getting out of their shorts? and how the dumb crowd get trapped into it? Here is the high probable trade setup using market profile which explains the context of inventory getting short to too short and the potential risk in holding trade in line with the emotional players.
Nifty Futures is still not out of compression yet and continuing with the 10600 – 10900 range for July series. More frustration is likely among the trend followers and short-term direction index futures traders. Volatility is flip-flopping. It is always good to recognize this sort of tough game for any kind of directional players that will eventually reduce overtrading.
One of the reasons we use market profile is to understand the market conditions and how the other players are positioned and what kind of trade opportunity the market conditions provide and where most of the other people are likely to keep their stops. At times the inferred data points from market profile reveal very high probability trade setups with a very good risk-reward ratio. Here is the interesting chart setup from S&P 500 Futures(ES Mini Futures) and the reason why in a short-term S&P500 will fall 50-60 points from the current level of 2792.
Grade 2 & Grade 3 High Probability Short covering Rally/Vertical Long Liquidation is more of a visual pattern which explains why a potential short covering / long liquidation pattern has to arrive when a specific trading behavior is observed. How to Initiate trades, when to invalidate setups and what are the high potential probe zones where the price can be expected to revisit in a very shorter timeframe.
Poor Structure in Nifty futures that the regular daily structure last couple of days indicating that more of emotional shorter term players are reacting to every tiny news information very emotionally. However, there is a lack of serious money last couple of days keeping the market in a 200 point tight range since 25th May 2018.
Nifty Futures on Friday’s trading session again bounced back above important and critical reference 10564 (Double distribution reference). Thursday’s and Friday’s trading session involve more of a old money covering their shorts rather than a fresh buying. That brings the question is the inventory adjustment is over as short term inventory when short to too short on Wednesday’s trading.
Nifty Futures on Wednesday trading session exactly respected at the Tuesdays prominent POC and also selling continued at days open. Day ended with a spike with a poor structure combination indicating a potential pullback towards 10540 levels as the short term trading inventory goes short to too short. Current swing low is not secured yet (will be revisited in a very shorter term).
In the financial markets, often a set of market participants keep on adding long inventory of a particular trading instrument during bull markets (long inventory pile up phase) over a period of time. At times the long inventory goes to the extreme which is often followed by the liquidation of those piled up inventories (liquidation phase). It is a trading good practice to understand which participants are piling inventories and who in the markets are cutting down their inventories.
Nifty Futures formed a back to back secured high indicating a potential swing top formation and also on Friday’s trading session broken 2 week low comfortably and closed below that comfortably. Immediate shorter term resistance coming around 10720 levels. In the last article, we talked about Too Many Weaker References dominating Nifty Futures.
“Too many Weaker References” – What does that actually mean? It means more of short term buyers behavior at every dip where they come and pile at very mechanical references. Those are the references which are often susceptible to retest and at times faster. when the weaker reference levels are exponential it indicates that short term inventory is getting long to too long and the revisiting odds of all those references significantly increased.