Just got fooled with the randomness in the 15 min Nifty future chart in my earlier view . So looking into the higher timeframe Nifty futures hourly chart for the Elliot count as shown above Nifty has formed a typical 5-3 wave pattern with 5 wave downward impulse pattern ending near 4155 and 3 Wave impulse pattern ending near 4440 levels. This pattern will fail if nifty opens gap up above 4440
Now Nifty Future is likely to resist near 4440 levels so that elliot wave pattern in houly charts could proved right or Else resisting near 4500-4510 to form a typical head and shoulders in nifty daily charts.
Reason for the Bearishness is still the market leader reliance is lagging Nifty
When market hits historical circuits nifty closed near 4300 levels and reliance near 2450 levels. Later when market was dragging down from its high of 4700 to 4250 it is observed reliance is trading near 2040 and now nifty above 4400 but still reliance near 2000 levels. Clearly there is a widening of performance between Nifty and the major constituent. It also means that keenly it is not intrested in participating in the upmove.
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Also trin is a good earlier indication in producing signals. But still trin is not in bullz zone(below 1).
Also check for the charts on hourly basis…means if the hourly candle closes above 4450 then it is sign of strength… ex check during the end of hour near 9:59:59 A.m or near 10.59.59 a.m or near 11.59.59 a.m. If nifty trade below 4440 in all the durations then it is a clear sign of weekness. There is also chance of testing 4500 levels in between 10:00:00 a.m – 10:59:59 a.m
Source:
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dear friend,though i am a noob at technicals, i have realised that 200 ema in 5 mins chart and 30 mins chart acts as a good resistance/support.nifty future's was resisting the 200 ema in 30 mins charts for the last 3 days, and yesterday when it gave a breakout it was a good 50 points.At the same time the if u notice yesterday nifty was taking time and again support on the 200 ema in the 5 mins chart.though i am not sure this would help u in any way, i thought i would juss share my findings with u over here.Arpit
@ArpitI agree currently Nifty Future is above 5 min charts above 200 MA and 30 min charts also above 200 period MA. But it doesnt mean that Nifty future is strongly bullish. EMA proves good to beact as a support/resistance line. Strategies can be built based on EMA line. But EMA line wont predict the future price movement. Only the price decides the EMA lines. Where ever Nifty future is trading EMA lines should be only to built strategy not to be confused with bullishness.
if nifty breaks 4050 then u can see it at 3850