We know that S&P 500 Index Futures (ES-Mini) and Crude Oil is correlated most of the time at lower timeframes. But recently the correlation seems to be missing between the two, where the ES Mini started rallying and the oil started dropping below sub 66 levels that make me write about the correlation relationship between the two.
WTIC Crude currently trading around 66.13 and local MCX Crude futures trading around Rs4203/ barrel. Current leg of uptrend is almost 7 month old without any steeper corrections. Recent exponential rise are widely believed to be from the tighter supply weak dollar and extreme short term speculators. Short term sentiment is negative which could drive the WTIC price lower to 64 and 62.5 levels.
Here are the 4 visible signs (Volatility Sentiment, Magazine Indicator, COT Percentile , Gold Oil Ratio) we look into it to predict the possible bottom in Crude.
COMEX Gold and WTIC Crude Weekly charts are shown here with ATR volatility trading system applied on top of it and William VIX indicator to guage the weekly volatility. It is observed that Gold last week entered into the long term sell mode with current weekly resistance zone coming near 1260 zone.