WTIC Crude is showing signs of strong momentum on Friday it is up by 4% during the U.S session. Since 22nd Nov 2018 crude is trading in a consolidation band of 50-54 range with couple of times testing the psychological reference zone 50 levels. And now price is trading in the upper end of the consolidation with stronger momentum which indicates potential higher prices in the shorter term.
WTIC Crude is in a clear downtrend since the start of Oct 2018. November month alone it lost more than -21%. Currently crude is trading above the psyhogical support zone 50 which is expected to provide better support zone and short term buying is expected to happen in this zone as long as 50 is protected on the downside.
WTIC Crude in the International market had lost more than 24% in the last two months due to too many negative factors. WTIC crude oil dips below $55 to its lowest level in a year, extending a record losing streak. Sentiment went really extreme negative when US President Donald Trump tweeted “Hopefully, Saudi Arabia and OPEC will not be cutting oil production. Oil prices should be much lower based on supply!”
We know that S&P 500 Index Futures (ES-Mini) and Crude Oil is correlated most of the time at lower timeframes. But recently the correlation seems to be missing between the two, where the ES Mini started rallying and the oil started dropping below sub 66 levels that make me write about the correlation relationship between the two.
WTIC Crude currently trading around 66.13 and local MCX Crude futures trading around Rs4203/ barrel. Current leg of uptrend is almost 7 month old without any steeper corrections. Recent exponential rise are widely believed to be from the tighter supply weak dollar and extreme short term speculators. Short term sentiment is negative which could drive the WTIC price lower to 64 and 62.5 levels.
Here are the 4 visible signs (Volatility Sentiment, Magazine Indicator, COT Percentile , Gold Oil Ratio) we look into it to predict the possible bottom in Crude.
COMEX Gold and WTIC Crude Weekly charts are shown here with ATR volatility trading system applied on top of it and William VIX indicator to guage the weekly volatility. It is observed that Gold last week entered into the long term sell mode with current weekly resistance zone coming near 1260 zone.