Yet another classical technical view on USDJPY as it comes out of the classical 200 Moving average (110.20) with a short covering. The Interesting part is that so far 7 attempts had made to close above 200MA since May 2018 all ends in vain. However current short-covering in USDJPY started with the speech of Peter Navarro, “one of President Donald Trump’s top trade advisors, said the market was overreacting to fears the administration would restrict foreign investment as part of its trade actions against China and other countries,” according to CNBC.
Both NSE & BSE received approval from SEBI to launch Cross Currency Derivative Pairs EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY. The trade timing in pair currency contracts would be available between 9:00 AM and 7:30 PM.
USDJPY currently trading around 108.71 with relatively thin volumes as Japanese markets are in holiday and despite rising US Markets and 10-year note yield now at 2.90%, surpassing last week’s 4-year high. trading higher USDJPY pair is little changed from Fridays closing.
USDJPY tested April 2017 low on fears that Pyongyang (North Korea) would launch another missile test over the weekend, which had added to last Friday’s USDJPY selloff. Last friday Yen had made a low around 107.32 followed by a strong pullback on monday leaving a strong tail on the bar chart again. Its the second time the pattern is repeating on north korea fears with a short term trade setup.
Japan’s currency USDJPY, strengthened as North Korean launched a missile that crossed over Japan on 29th Aug 2017. Yen had made a low around 108.27 and made a 2-month low followed by a strong intraday pullback leaving a strong tail on the bar chart. Trading sentiment was extremely negative and the bias still holds negative. However a follow through rally is anticipated in USDJPY and has the probability to establish a short/medium term trend reversal.
USDJPY is in the downtrend for the last 10 months. Overall Volatility and downtrend momentum weakened in the last 4 weeks with the sideways movement in USDJPY. The Psychological trading zone – Pairs parity 100 got whipsawed couple of times followed by a minor pullback last week. As the panic in USDJPY is fading away one can expect USDJPY to continue in the large consolidation zone and expecting to test 108 in the medium term.
USDJPY Monthly charts are in declining mode for the last 9 months and consecutively keep on making lower lows and lower highs. And from the 2015 high USDJPY had last around ~20% since the negative interest rate announcement came on January 29. And currently trading around above the psychological support zone of 100 levels. CM William VIX FIX levels indicates a possible oversold levels.